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兵工学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (5): 986-994.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2017.05.019

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

变深度发射性能可靠性影响因素多元逐步回归分析

胡松伟   

  1. (91550部队, 辽宁 大连 116023)
  • 收稿日期:2016-08-24 修回日期:2016-08-24 上线日期:2017-07-03
  • 作者简介:胡松伟(1976—), 男, 工程师。 E-mail: goto55@sina.com
  • 基金资助:
    军内科研项目(2013年)

Analysis of Influencing Factors on Reliability of Varable Depth Submarine-launched System Based on Multivariate StepwiseRegression

HU Song-wei   

  1. (Unit 91550 of PLA, Dalian 116023, Liaoning, China)
  • Received:2016-08-24 Revised:2016-08-24 Online:2017-07-03

摘要: 针对某发射系统变深度性能可靠性影响因素最佳子集获取问题,综合考虑设计偏差、装药性能偏差和环境因素,建立诸因素影响程度的多元逐步回归模型。以性能试验信息为基础,对试验数据中诸影响因素进行相关性分析,计算给出诸影响因素的相关系数,回归分析结果与试验测量结果相吻合;以此为基础进一步获取环境因子进行性能折算,结果表明经多元回归分析修正后的性能参数的估计误差标准差缩小,可有效提高变深度发射性能可靠性的估值精度。

关键词: 兵器科学与技术, 变深度发射, 性能可靠性, 影响因素, 多元逐步回归分析

Abstract: Reliability of underwater varable depth launching system is affected by various influencing factors. The weight and offsetting of projectile are studied by multivariate stepwise regression analysis method, and the second-order algorithm of the models is established. Design deviation, charge performance deviation and environmental factos are taken into account. The relativity analysis for each factor is carried out based on the live firing performance test information of a certain type submarine-launched missile. The effects of the influencing factors, correlation coefficients of each factor and best regression subset are discussed. The results of the regression analysis accords well with the live firing phenomena. Based on this method, the experimental results indicate that the estamated error standard deviation of functional reliability parameter is improved. Multiple stepwise regression method improves the estimation precision. It is feasible and effective to analyze the influencing factors. Key

Key words: ordnancescienceandtechnology, changeble-depthlaunch, performancereliability, influencingfactor, multiplestepwiseregressionanalysis

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