基于数据融合和改进新陈代谢不等间距GM(11)模型的导弹装备故障预测

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2014.10.025

兵工学报 ›› 2014, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (10): 1689-1695.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2014.10.025

基于数据融合和改进新陈代谢不等间距GM(11)模型的导弹装备故障预测

赵建忠¹，叶文¹，张磊²

（1.海军航空工程学院兵器科学与技术系，山东烟台 264001； 2.海军航空工程学院科研部，山东烟台 264001）

收稿日期:2014-01-17 修回日期:2014-01-17 上线日期:2014-11-28
通讯作者: 赵建忠 E-mail:zjznavy@163.com
作者简介:赵建忠(1978—)，讲师，博士

Failure Prediction of Missile Equipment Based on Data Fusion and AMUGM(11) Model

ZHAO Jian-zhong¹， YE Wen¹， ZHANG Lei²

(1.Department of Ordnance Science and Technology, Naval Aeronautical and Astronautical University, Yantai 264001, Shandong, China;2.Department of Scientific Research , Naval Aeronautical and Astronautical University, Yantai 264001, Shandong, China)

Received:2014-01-17 Revised:2014-01-17 Online:2014-11-28
Contact: ZHAO Jian-zhong E-mail:zjznavy@163.com

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对导弹装备故障预测中存在数据采样时间间隔不均匀、采样难度大、数据量小等问题，借鉴数据融合技术和灰色预测理论，提出一种基于数据融合和改进新陈代谢不等间距灰色模型（AMUGM(1,1)）的预测方法。建立改进初始值选取和背景值构造的不等间距灰色模型，并通过残差修正和新陈代谢相结合的方式对模型进行优化；基于加权思想提出了隶属度加权法，以确定各模型的隶属度权值；根据隶属度权值和AMUGM(1,1)模型建立特定个体的故障预测模型。实例仿真验证了该方法的有效性。

关键词: 兵器科学与技术, 故障预测, 灰色模型, 不等间距GM(1, 1)模型, 数据融合

Abstract: In view of the unequal data sampling time interval, the great difficulty of date sampling and a small amount of data in failure prediction of missile equipment, a prediction method based on data fusion and amendatory metabolism unequal interval grey model (AMUGM(1,1)) is proposed according to data fusion technology and grey prediction theory. The unequal interval grey model (UGM(1,1)) is established by improved initial value choice and background value constitution, and is optimized by residual error correction and metabolism．Then a membership grade weighted method is put forward based on weighted idea so as to determine the membership values of the models. Finally, a failure prediction model of special individual is built on the basis of membership values and AMUGM(1,1) model. The simulation result shows that the proposed method is effective.

Key words: ordnance science and technology, failure prediction, grey model, unequal interval grey model, data fusion

中图分类号:

TP391.9

赵建忠，叶文，张磊. 基于数据融合和改进新陈代谢不等间距GM(11)模型的导弹装备故障预测[J]. 兵工学报, 2014, 35(10): 1689-1695.

ZHAO Jian-zhong， YE Wen， ZHANG Lei. Failure Prediction of Missile Equipment Based on Data Fusion and AMUGM(11) Model[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2014, 35(10): 1689-1695.

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基于数据融合和改进新陈代谢不等间距GM(11)模型的导弹装备故障预测

Failure Prediction of Missile Equipment Based on Data Fusion and AMUGM(11) Model

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