Reliability Assessment for Device with Only Safe-or-failure Pattern Based on Bayesian Hyprid Prior Approach

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2016.03.016

Abstract

Abstract: For the reliability evaluation of device with only safe-or-failure pattern, a hyprid prior approach is introduced, and the posteriori probability distribution function of reliability parameter is deduced by Bayesian method. The influence of prior distribution parameters on the posterior estimation is considered, and the general rules of choosing these parameters are summarized. The parameter posterior estimates of traditional Bayesian method and hyprid prior approach are compared. The results indicate that the hyprid prior approach can avoid the problem of that the prior data inundate the posteriori data effectively. The analysis of posteriori mean square error demonstrates that the hyprid prior approach can improve the performance of estimation to some extent. Through the comparison with power prior approach, it is proved that the estimation effect of hyprid prior approach is better than that of power prior approach, especially when prior sample size is larger.

Key words: system assessment and feasibility analysis, reliability assessment, safe-or-failure pattern, Bayesian method, hyprid prior approach

CLC Number:

TB114.3

ZHANG Wen-jie， YANG Hua-bo， ZHANG Shi-feng. Reliability Assessment for Device with Only Safe-or-failure Pattern Based on Bayesian Hyprid Prior Approach[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2016, 37(3): 505-511.

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