The Optimization and Evaluation of Ballistic Missile Defense System Interception Scheme Based on Probability Model

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2016.02.026

Abstract

Abstract: How to design and deploy the interception schemes to meet the specific high-level defense objective is discussed. A correlation between defense objective and the number of interceptors is established based on Bernoulli trial model, and the effects of system generalized tracking ability and single-shot kill probability on the number of interceptors are analyzed as well. the factors, such as high-level defense objective, target number and single-shot kill probability, that affect consumption of interceptors at the modes of salvo fire and string firing are discussed. At the premise of defense objective, the interceptor allocation in a layered defense is modeled as an optimization problem. The average number of consumed interceptors can be minimized by optimizing the quantity of interceptors against the targets in each defense layer.

Key words: system assessment and feasibility analysis, ballistic missile defense system, Bernoulli mo- del, interception

CLC Number:

GAO Ang, HU Yan-su. The Optimization and Evaluation of Ballistic Missile Defense System Interception Scheme Based on Probability Model[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2016, 37(2): 379-384.

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