基于概率密度演化方法的火炮输弹过程不确定性分析

doi:10.12382/bgxb.2021.0298

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为分析火炮输弹过程不确定性参数对输弹一致性的影响，提出基于概率密度演化理论的输弹过程不确定性分析方法。建立某火炮输弹机的ADAMS动力学模型，根据概率密度守恒原理推导输弹过程的广义概率密度演化方程，以弹丸状态变量和输弹过程随机参数的联合概率密度函数建立状态空间与概率空间之间的联系。根据物理状态的演变引出概率密度的演化，并基于Lax-Wendroff格式的有限差分法求解输弹响应的概率密度函数。与文献［20］试验结果对比，输弹ADAMS 动力学模型的仿真位移曲线与试验数据基本吻合，验证了模型的准确性；分析了不同工况下参数不确定性对弹丸响应的影响，得到了响应均方差。结果表明：与蒙特卡洛（MC）方法的结果对比，该方法计算的响应概率密度函数在形式与精度上都比较准确，验证了该方法的适用性；随着输弹角的增大，响应的波动范围扩大。

关键词: 火炮, 输弹过程, 不确定性分析, 概率密度演化, 有限差分法

Abstract: A uncertainty analysis method for ammunition ramming process based on probability density evolution theory is proposed to analyze the influence of uncertain parameters in ammunition ramming process on the consistency of ammunition ramming. The ADAMS dynamic model of ramming process is established. The generalized probability density evolution equation of ramming process solved by finite difference method based on Lax-Wendroff scheme is derived，in which the relationship between state space and probability space is established by the joint probability density function of projectile state variable and random parameters of ammunition ramming process.The simulated displacement curve of ADAMS model is basically consistent with the experimental data，which verifies the accuracy of the proposed model. Compared with the Monte Carlo method，the response probability density function calculated by the proposed method is acceptable.The influence of parameter uncertainty on the projectile response under different working conditions is analyzed，and the mean square error of response is calculated.The results show that the fluctuation range of projectile response expands with the increase in ammunition ramming angle.

Key words: artillery, ammunitionramming, uncertaintyanalysis, probabilitydensityevolution, finitedifferencemethod

中图分类号:

TJ302

王明明，钱林方，陈光宋，刘太素. 基于概率密度演化方法的火炮输弹过程不确定性分析[J]. 兵工学报, 2022, 43(6): 1215-1224.

WANG Mingming， QIAN Linfang， CHEN Guangsong， LIU Taisu. Uncertainty Analysis of Ammunition Ramming Process Based on Probability Density Evolution Method[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2022, 43(6): 1215-1224.

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