基于可靠性增长的武器系统可靠性鉴定试验方案研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2017.09.019

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 武器系统的可靠性鉴定试验往往面临试验样本有限、难以组织过多试验的困难。为了充分对武器系统可靠性指标进行考核，利用离散AMSAA模型描述可靠性增长过程，给出了可靠度点估计表达式。在此基础上，从工程实际出发，通过将可靠性增长试验评估结果与研制总要求规定数值进行比较分析，提出了一种相对客观和保守的先验分布确定方法。在Bayes框架下，给出了可靠性鉴定试验方案确定思路和方法。以某型装备为例，明确了试验方案确定方法的操作步骤，说明了方法的可实施性。通过数值分析，说明该方法在满足试验鉴定要求的前提下，能够有效减少总试验次数，并验证了该方法的保守性和合理性。

关键词: 概率论, 可靠性鉴定试验, 可靠性增长, 离散AMSAA模型

Abstract: The test samples are limited for reliability qualification test of weapon system in most cases, therefore more engineering tests are difficult to be implemented. In order to evaluate fully the reliability index of weapon system, the reliability growth progress is described by using discrete AMSAA model, and the point estimation of reliability is obtained. The determination method of prior distribution, which is relatively objective and conservative, is presented by comparing the evaluated result of reliability growth test and the specified value of development general requirements. The determination thought and method of reliability qualification test scheme are proposed based on Bayes theory. The operating steps of determination method are illustrated by taking a weapon for example. It also demonstrates that the proposed method is available for engineering. The numerical simulations show that the determination method can be used to reduce the number of tests effetely on the precondition of test evaluation requirements. Key

Key words: probabilitytheory, reliabilityqualificationtest, reliabilitygrowth, discreteAMSAAmodel

中图分类号:

TJ630.1

李大伟，阮旻智，尤焜. 基于可靠性增长的武器系统可靠性鉴定试验方案研究[J]. 兵工学报, 2017, 38(9): 1815-1821.

LI Da-wei， RUAN Min-zhi， YOU Kun. Weapon System Reliability Qualification Test Scheme Based on Reliability Growth[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2017, 38(9): 1815-1821.

参考文献

［1］武小悦, 刘琦. 装备试验与评价［M］. 北京: 国防工业出版社, 2008.
WU Xiao-yue, LIU Qi. Military equipment test and evaluation［M］. Beijing: National Defense Industry Press, 2008.(in Chinese)
［2］冯文哲, 刘琦. 成败型产品的Bayes可靠性验证试验设计［J］. 航空动力学报, 2012, 27(1): 110-116.
FENG Wen-zhe, LIU Qi. Bayesian reliability demonstration test design for binomial distributed product［J］. Journal of Aerospace Power, 2012, 27(1): 110-116. (in Chinese)
［3］ Gonzalez D S, Alejo R J R, Cantu M, et al. A non-linear fuzzy regression for estimating reliability in a degradation process［J］. Applied Soft Computing,2014, 16: 137-147.
［4］ Si X S, Chen M Y, Wang W B, et al. Specifying measurement errors for required lifetime estimation performance［J］. European Journal of Operational Research, 2013, 231(3): 631-644.
［5］王浩伟, 徐廷学, 周伟. 综合退化数据与寿命数据的某型电连接器寿命预测方法［J］. 上海交通大学学报, 2014, 48(5): 702-706.
WANG Hao-wei, XU Ting-xue, ZHOU Wei. Lifetime prediction method for missile electrical connector synthesizing degradation data and lifetime data［J］. Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 2014, 48(5): 702-706.(in Chinese)
［6］ Wang X L, Jiang P, Guo B, et al. Real-time reliability evaluation based on damaged measurement degradation data［J］. Journal of Central South University, 2012, 19(11): 3162-3169.
［7］邢云燕, 武小悦. 成败型系统可靠性增长的动态Bayes评定方法［J］. 系统工程理论与实践, 2010, 30(4): 695-699.
XING Yun-yan, WU Xiao-yue. Dynamic Bayesian evaluation method for binomial system with reliability growth［J］. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice, 2010, 30(4): 695-699. (in Chinese)
［8］毛昭勇, 宋保维, 胡海豹, 等. 基于AMSAA增长模型的鱼雷系统Bayes可靠性分析［J］. 兵工学报, 2009, 30(10): 1401-1404.
MAO Zhao-yong, SONG Bao-wei, HU Hai-bao, et al. The Bayes reliability evaluation method based on AMSAA model for torpedo system［J］. Acta Armamentarii, 2009, 30(10): 1401-1404. (in Chinese)
［9］ Mazzuchi T A, Soyer R. A Bayes attribute reliability growth model［C］∥Proceedings of 1991 Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. Orlando, FL, US: IEEE, 1991:332-325.

［10］明志茂, 张云安, 陶俊勇, 等. 基于新Dirichlet先验分布的超参数确定方法研究［J］. 宇航学报, 2008, 29(6): 2062-2067.
MING Zhi-mao, ZHANG Yun-an, TAO Jun-yong, et al. A method to determine the hyper parameters of the new Dirichlet prior distribution［J］. Journal of Astronautics, 2008, 29(6): 2062-2067. (in Chinese)
［11］袁昆, 李晓钢. 成败型系统可靠性增长的Bayes评估［J］. 北京航空航天大学学报, 2014, 40(9): 1312-1316.
YUAN Kun, LI Xiao-gang.Bayesian evaluation method for binomial system reliability growth［J］. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2014, 40(9): 1312-1316. (in Chinese)
［12］ Nicholls J L. Reliability growth of multi-stage single shot systems［D］. Washington, DC, US: The George Washington University, 2011.
［13］张志华. 可靠性理论与工程应用［M］. 北京: 科学出版社, 2012.
ZHANG Zhi-hua. Reliability theory and application［M］. Beijing: Science Press, 2012. (in Chinese)
［14］于廷臣, 陆山, 黄家骅,等. 某涡喷发动机可靠性增长分析［J］. 推进技术, 2005, 26(6): 560-562.
YU Ting-chen, LU Shan, HUANG Jia-hua, et al. Reliability growth analysis of a turbojet engine［J］. Journal of Propulsion Technology, 2005, 26(6): 560-562. (in Chinese)
［15］龚庆祥. 型号可靠性工程手册［M］. 北京: 国防工业出版社, 2007.
GONG Qing-xiang. Handbook for reliability engineering［M］. Beijing: National Defense Industry Press, 2007.(in Chinese)
［16］刘纪涛. 水冲压发动机小子样可靠性评定方法研究［D］. 长沙: 国防科学技术大学, 2010.
LIU Ji-tao. Research on methods of reliability assessment with small sample for water ramjet［D］. Changsha: National University of Defense Technology, 2010.(in Chinese)
［17］张文杰, 杨华波, 张士峰. 基于Bayes混合验前分布的成败型产品可靠性评估［J］.兵工学报, 2016, 37(3): 505-511.
ZHANG Wen-jie, YANG Hua-bo, ZHANG Shi-feng. Reliability assessment for device with only safe-or-failure pattern based on Bayesian hybrid prior approach［J］.Acta Armamentarii, 2016, 37(3): 505-511. (in Chinese)
［18］ GJB 899A—2009 可靠性鉴定和验收试验［S］. 北京: 中国人民解放军总装备部，2009.
GJB 899—2009 Reliability testing for qualification and production acceptance［S］. Beijing: PLA General Armament Department, 2009.(in Chinese)
［19］曾志国. 贝叶斯可靠性［M］. 北京: 国防工业出版社, 2014.
ZENG Zhi-guo. Bayesian reliability［M］. Beijing: National Defense Industry Press, 2014.(in Chinese)

第38卷
第9期2017 年9月兵工学报ACTA
ARMAMENTARIIVol.38No.9Sep.2017

[1]	胡听春，孙宇锋，赵广燕. 武器装备可靠性设计保证系数取值方法[J]. 兵工学报, 2021, 42(12): 2753-2761.
[2]	刘小平，张立杰，沈凯凯，高强. 考虑测量误差的步进加速退化试验建模与剩余寿命估计[J]. 兵工学报, 2017, 38(8): 1586-1592.
[3]	王增全，王正，兰银在，陈泽忠，侯新荣. 某型车用柴油机机体缝合螺栓的可靠性增长研究[J]. 兵工学报, 2017, 38(3): 433-439.
[4]	王正，王增全, 谢里阳. 失效相关系统的失效概率模型与寿命概率分布特征研究[J]. 兵工学报, 2015, 36(7): 1326-1333.
[5]	田恒斗，侯代文，房毅，孙文豪. 火箭助飞鱼雷不同齐射方式下的捕获概率分析[J]. 兵工学报, 2015, 36(7): 1370-1376.
[6]	张峰，南华，姚会举，吕程诚. 随机噪声模拟下机构部件磨损动态可靠性模型及其求解方法[J]. 兵工学报, 2014, 35(12): 2104-2108.
[7]	马春茂, 邵延君, 潘宏侠, 刘永姜. 基于灰色马尔可夫模型的装备故障间隔期预测研究[J]. 兵工学报, 2013, 34(9): 1193-1196.
[8]	田恒斗, 曹庆刚, 侯代文, 杨绪升. 火箭助飞鱼雷捕获概率的解析模型[J]. 兵工学报, 2013, 34(7): 916-921.
[9]	陶小创, 郭霖瀚, 肖波平, 刘瑞. 基于备件保障概率分配的备件需求量预测模型[J]. 兵工学报, 2012, 33(8): 975-979.
[10]	陶德进，史慧敏，王军，薄煜明，郭治. 基于共有分量分解的速射火炮毁伤概率计算模型[J]. 兵工学报, 2012, 33(11): 1358-1363.
[11]	田玉斌，王典鹏. 火工品发火可靠性小样本鉴定试验方法[J]. 兵工学报, 2011, 32(4): 426-431.
[12]	刘超，王军，郭治. 一种基于滞留时间序列的毁伤率估计[J]. 兵工学报, 2011, 32(4): 508-512.
[13]	王学，高普云，冯志刚，张浪，胡靖. 考虑两类监测失效时冷贮备系统的可靠性建模与分析[J]. 兵工学报, 2011, 32(3): 331-336.
[14]	黄大荣，宋军，赵刚. 基于错分代价的故障预测技术安全性能评估方法[J]. 兵工学报, 2011, 32(10): 1292-1297.
[15]	贠来峰, 芮筱亭₁, 陈涛₃. 一种平衡抛射单兵反装甲武器发射装药低温发射安全性分析[J]. 兵工学报, 2010, 31(4): 429-433.