火箭助飞鱼雷捕获概率的解析模型

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2013.07.019

兵工学报 ›› 2013, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (7): 916-921.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2013.07.019

火箭助飞鱼雷捕获概率的解析模型

田恒斗, 曹庆刚, 侯代文, 杨绪升

91439 部队, 辽宁大连116041

收稿日期:2012-08-12 修回日期:2012-08-12 上线日期:2014-08-19
作者简介:田恒斗(1981—), 男, 工程师。
基金资助:
总装“十二五冶预先研究项目(51314020301)

Analytical Model of Rocket-assisted Torpedo's Acquisition Probability

TIAN Heng-dou, CAO Qing-gang, HOU Dai-wen, YANG Xu-sheng

91439 Troops of PLA, Dalian 116041, Liaoning, China

Received:2012-08-12 Revised:2012-08-12 Online:2014-08-19

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对火箭助飞鱼雷作战方式及弹道形式与传统声自导鱼雷的不同,深入分析了搜索区域、落点散布和目标散布等影响火箭助飞鱼雷捕获概率的关键因素,得出了各要素的数学描述。进而综合考虑3 个要素的相互关系,并根据不同射击方式下目标散布模型的本质区别,分别采用“误差综合冶与“全概率冶的思想,构建了前置点和现在点2 种典型射击方式下火箭助飞鱼雷捕获概率的解析模型。且其计算值与仿真实验结果吻合良好。

关键词: 概率论, 火箭助飞鱼雷, 捕获概率, 解析模型, 误差综合, 全概率

Abstract: According to the analysis of rocket-assisted torpedo operation mode and trajectory, the searching area, water entry point dispersion and target dispersion are found to be the key factors of rocket-assisted torpedo acquisition probability, and mathematical descriptions of each factor are provided. Considered of relative relationship of three factors, and the differences between two typical attacking modes, namely pre-point and current point, two analytical models are presented for rocket-assisted torpedo acquisition probability, based on error synthesis and total probability respectively. The calculated values agree well with the results of simulation experiment.

Key words: probability theory, rocket-assisted torpedo, acquisition probability, analytical model, error synthesis, total probability

中图分类号:

TJ630

田恒斗, 曹庆刚, 侯代文, 杨绪升. 火箭助飞鱼雷捕获概率的解析模型[J]. 兵工学报, 2013, 34(7): 916-921.

TIAN Heng-dou, CAO Qing-gang, HOU Dai-wen, YANG Xu-sheng. Analytical Model of Rocket-assisted Torpedo's Acquisition Probability[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2013, 34(7): 916-921.

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火箭助飞鱼雷捕获概率的解析模型

Analytical Model of Rocket-assisted Torpedo's Acquisition Probability

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