考虑测量误差的步进加速退化试验建模与剩余寿命估计

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2017.08.017

兵工学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (8): 1586-1592.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2017.08.017

考虑测量误差的步进加速退化试验建模与剩余寿命估计

刘小平^1,2，张立杰^1,2，沈凯凯^1,2，高强^1,2

(1.燕山大学先进锻压成形技术与科学教育部重点实验室，河北秦皇岛 066004；2.燕山大学河北省重型机械流体动力传输与控制重点实验室，河北秦皇岛 066004)

收稿日期:2016-12-08 修回日期:2016-12-08 上线日期:2017-10-10
作者简介:刘小平(1989—), 男, 博士研究生。E-mail: liu_xp163@163.com

Step Stress Accelerated Degradation Test Modeling and Remaining Useful Life Estimation in Consideration of Measuring Error

LIU Xiao-ping^1,2， ZHANG Li-jie^1,2， SHEN Kai-kai^1,2， GAO Qiang^1,2

(1.Key Laboratory of Advanced Forging & Stamping Technology and Science of Ministry of Education of China, Yanshan University, Qinhuangdao 066004, Hebei, China;2.Hebei Key Laboratory of Heavy Machinery Fluid Power Transmission and Control, Yanshan University, Qinhuangdao 066004, Hebei, China)

Received:2016-12-08 Revised:2016-12-08 Online:2017-10-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 步进应力加速退化试验已发展成高可靠、长寿命产品可靠性评估与剩余寿命估计的主要试验方法。为研究测量误差在基于步进应力加速退化试验方法剩余寿命估计中的影响，建立了基于Wiener过程的考虑个体差异和测量误差的退化模型。将Wiener过程的漂移系数随机化描述个体差异，在首达时间意义下得到了寿命分布的概率密度函数。基于极大似然估计法对模型中引入的未知参数进行估计。采用蒙特卡洛方法对激光器的性能退化进行了仿真研究。研究结果表明，考虑测量误差的退化模型的模型拟合性和剩余寿命估计精度都优于不考虑测量误差的方法，可以提高可靠性估计的精度与剩余寿命预测的准确性。

关键词: 概率论, 随机过程, 剩余寿命估计, 步进应力, 测量误差, 极大似然估计

Abstract: Accelerated degradation test (ADT) has been developed into a main test method, which can be used to estimate the reliability and remaining useful life (RUL) of products with high reliability and long life. In order to study the effect of measurement error on the estimation of RUL in the step stress accelerated degradation test, a degradation process modeling based on Wiener process model considering the measurement error and the individual variation is proposed. The drift coefficient of Wiener process is randomized to describe the individual variation in different equipment, and the probability density function of life distribution is obtained at first hitting time. The maximum likelihood estimation method is used to estimate the unknown parameters introduced in the model. Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the performance degradation of laser. The results show that the fitting of model and the accuracy of RUL estimation in the degradation model considering the measurement error are better than those in the model without considering the measurement error, which can enhance the estimation accuracy of reliability and the prediction accuracy of RUL.Key

Key words: probabilitytheory, stochasticprocess, remainingusefullifeestimation, stepstress, measurementerror, maximumlikelihoodestimation

中图分类号:

TB114.37

刘小平，张立杰，沈凯凯，高强. 考虑测量误差的步进加速退化试验建模与剩余寿命估计[J]. 兵工学报, 2017, 38(8): 1586-1592.

LIU Xiao-ping， ZHANG Li-jie， SHEN Kai-kai， GAO Qiang. Step Stress Accelerated Degradation Test Modeling and Remaining Useful Life Estimation in Consideration of Measuring Error[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2017, 38(8): 1586-1592.

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考虑测量误差的步进加速退化试验建模与剩余寿命估计

Step Stress Accelerated Degradation Test Modeling and Remaining Useful Life Estimation in Consideration of Measuring Error

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