基于灰色马尔可夫模型的装备故障间隔期预测研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2013.09.022

兵工学报 ›› 2013, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (9): 1193-1196.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2013.09.022

基于灰色马尔可夫模型的装备故障间隔期预测研究

马春茂¹, 邵延君², 潘宏侠², 刘永姜²

1. 西北机电工程研究所, 陕西咸阳712099; 2. 中北大学机械工程与自动化学院, 山西太原030051

收稿日期:2012-09-29 修回日期:2012-09-29 上线日期:2013-11-11
作者简介:马春茂(1961—),男,研究员。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(51175480);山西省自然科学基金项目(2012011046-12)

Elastic-plastic Analysis on Dynamic Response of Arch Subjected to Explosive Impact

MA Chun-mao¹, SHAO Yan-jun², PAN Hong-xia², LIU Yong-jiang²

1. North west Institute of Mechanics and Electrics Engineering, Xianyang 712099, Shaanxi,China; 2. Mechanical Engineering and Automation College,North University of China,Taiyuan 030051,Shanxi,China

Received:2012-09-29 Revised:2012-09-29 Online:2013-11-11

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对武器装备故障间隔期预测的难点,提出了在灰色GM(1,1) 模型的基础上建立灰色马尔可夫组合模型进行故障间隔期的预测。在分析典型电子装备故障率曲线的基础上,根据电子装备的故障特点,形成合理的建模背景,建立组合模型对装备故障间隔期进行预测。通过实例对预测值和真实值进行比较,表明在“少数据冶、“贫信息冶、“ 不确定冶的情况下利用该组合模型预测故障间隔期的有效性,有效降低预测误差,提高预测精度。

关键词: 概率论, 灰色马尔可夫模型, 预测, 故障间隔期

Abstract:

For the difficulty in predicting time between weapon failures, a grey Markov model is established based on grey model (1,1). And a combined model for the prediction of the time between failures is established by analyzing a typical failure rate curve of electronic equipment and forming a reasonable modeling background according to the characteristics of electronic equipment faults. The predicted value is compared with the real value through an instance. The result shows that the combined model can be used effectively to predict the time between failures, reduce the prediction error and improve the prediction accuracy in the case of few data, poor information and uncertainty.

Key words: probability, gray Markov model, prediction, time between failures

中图分类号:

TJ307

马春茂, 邵延君, 潘宏侠, 刘永姜. 基于灰色马尔可夫模型的装备故障间隔期预测研究[J]. 兵工学报, 2013, 34(9): 1193-1196.

MA Chun-mao, SHAO Yan-jun, PAN Hong-xia, LIU Yong-jiang. Elastic-plastic Analysis on Dynamic Response of Arch Subjected to Explosive Impact[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2013, 34(9): 1193-1196.

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基于灰色马尔可夫模型的装备故障间隔期预测研究

Elastic-plastic Analysis on Dynamic Response of Arch Subjected to Explosive Impact

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