关键词: 武器装备可靠性, 设计保证系数, 可靠性指标, 可靠性预计值, 规定值, 最低可接受值, 可靠性鉴定试验

Abstract: For the control of quality risk in a project，the national military standards and model specifications both stipulate that the reliability prediction value of equipment should be at least 1 to 1.5 times the contract value (hereinafter referred to as the design assurance coefficient). However，the selection of design assurance coefficient is lack of theoretical basis，especially the selection basis for precise quantification. In view of this problem， a reference method is established for accurately determining the design assurance coefficient. Based on the discussion of the connotation and interrelationships of related indicators such as the reliability prediction value，the specified value，the minimum acceptable value，and the upper/lower limits of the appraisal test，the selection method and basis for the design assurance coefficients are given for two types of products which their lives are based on Weibull distribution and exponential distribution. Based on this， the upper and lower limit constraints of reliability improvement cost and reliability index are considered，and a general basis is given for the value of design assurance coefficient. The design assurance coefficient selection method and value table proposed in this paper provide theoretical basis and guidance for the determination of reliability prediction index requirements from the perspective of reliability qualification test risk control.

Key words: weaopnequipmentreliability, designassurancecoefficient, reliabilityindex, reliabilitypredictionvalue, specifiedvalue, minimumacceptablevalue, reliabilityqualificationtest