关键词: 兵器科学与技术, 设计结构矩阵, 任务重叠, 质量标准向量, 蒙特卡罗, 灵敏度

Abstract: Among three performance indicators, such as time of duration, cost and quality, of a project, the quality is very important. To make the completion quality of the subtask achieve the prospective quality indicator, the process of rework is described by means of quality-feedback based on design structure matrix. Monte Carlo simulation technique is applied to obtain the total cost and time of the project. In this way, the time of duration, cost and quality are linked together to study the influence of quality on schedule risk and cost risk of the project through the analysis of the sensitivity. The research results show that the sensitivity of airframe structure design task is the highest in the process of advanced development of a certain military aircraft, so the project manager can give priority to control the process risk by coordinating the allocation of resources.

Key words: ordnance science and technology, design structure matrix, task overlapping, vector of quality standard, Monte Carlo, sensitivity