可修单元组合任务维修度评估方法研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2016.11.014

兵工学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (11): 2058-2065.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2016.11.014

可修单元组合任务维修度评估方法研究

韩小孩¹，张耀辉¹，王少华¹，曹兴伟²

(1.装甲兵工程学院技术保障工程系，北京 100072； 2.总参谋部工程兵科研三所，河南洛阳 471023)

收稿日期:2016-01-06 修回日期:2016-01-06 上线日期:2016-12-30
通讯作者: 韩小孩 E-mail:hanleiacd@163.com
作者简介:韩小孩(1987—)，男，博士研究生
基金资助:
武器装备预先研究项目（2011JJ1105）

Research on the Evaluation of Mission Maintainability of Repairable Unit Constitution

HAN Xiao-hai¹， ZHANG Yao-hui¹， WANG Shao-hua¹， CAO Xing-wei²

(1.Department of Technology Support Engineering, Academy of Armored Force Engineering, Beijing 100072, China;2.The Third Engineer Scientific Research Institute, General Staff Department, Luoyang 471023, Henan, China)

Received:2016-01-06 Revised:2016-01-06 Online:2016-12-30
Contact: HAN Xiao-hai E-mail:hanleiacd@163.com

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对传统任务维修性评估方法不能有效估算特定任务剖面内装备总体维修时间问题，提出一种可修单元组合任务维修度评估方法。采用贝叶斯更新理论对功能单元维修时间概率密度函数进行更新；通过仿真加拟合的方式对可修单元组合各故障事件排除概率进行计算。示例分析表明：该方法不仅能解决因数据不完全统计因素引发的功能单元概率密度函数估计不准确的问题，而且能更加便捷地计算多个函数的卷积；任务维修度评估结果更加可信。

关键词: 兵器科学与技术, 可修单元组合, 任务维修度, 贝叶斯更新, 故障事件

Abstract: The traditional mission maintainability evaluation method cannot effectively estimate the overall maintenance time of equipment in specific task profile. An evaluation method which can be used to evaluate the mission maintainability of repairable unit constitution is proposed. During evaluation, the maintenance time probability density function of functional unit is estimated using a Bayesian updating approach, and the maintainability of failure event of repairable unit constitution is calculated in a simulation way. The example analysis shows that the proposed method may not only solve the estimated inaccuracy of maintenance time probability density function of functional unit due to incomplete statistical data, but also calculate the convolution of multiple functions conveniently. The assessed result of mission maintainability is more credible.

Key words: ordnance science and technology, repairable unit constitution, mission maintainability, Bayesian updating, failure event

中图分类号:

韩小孩，张耀辉，王少华，曹兴伟. 可修单元组合任务维修度评估方法研究[J]. 兵工学报, 2016, 37(11): 2058-2065.

HAN Xiao-hai， ZHANG Yao-hui， WANG Shao-hua， CAO Xing-wei. Research on the Evaluation of Mission Maintainability of Repairable Unit Constitution[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2016, 37(11): 2058-2065.

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可修单元组合任务维修度评估方法研究

Research on the Evaluation of Mission Maintainability of Repairable Unit Constitution

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