考虑多故障模式的作战试验维修性评估

doi:10.12382/bgxb.2023.1189

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

作战试验中的维修性评估具有现场试验数据不足、故障模式多样以及装备的修复状态和维修任务多样等特点。将与系统及其故障模式有关的先验信息和现场试验数据融合,可以扩充信息来源,为装备的维修性评估提供新思路。对此,利用离散Bayes定理结合故障数据更新各故障模式组合在试验中存在的概率,并在Bayes框架下估计各故障模式维修时间的分布参数。在此基础上获得受试系统维修性评估结果,并进一步考虑战场抢修条件下受试系统维修度的评估。通过算例分析说明新提出方法的具体应用,验证该方法能够得到比现有方法更为准确的维修时间密度函数估计和系统维修度估计,表明在作战试验背景下,将试验数据考虑为多故障模式的情况有利于更深入地理解维修时间分布的机理,更细致地掌握维修性评估的具体逻辑,从而得到更合理的评估结果。

关键词: 作战试验, 维修性评估, 多故障模式, Bayes理论, 信息融合

Abstract:

The evaluation of military equipment maintainability in operational test is characterized by insufficient field test data,various failure modes,different repair states and maintenance tasks of equipment.The fusion of prior information related to the system and its failure modes and field test data can expand the source of information and provide new ideas for the evaluation of equipment maintainability.To this end,the probability of each failure mode combination in the test is updated using discrete Bayes theorem and fault data.The distribution parameters of maintenance time of each failure mode are estimated under Bayes framework.On this basis,the evaluated results of test system maintainability are obtained,and the evaluation of test system maintainability under the condition of battlefield repair is considered.The application of the proposed method is illustrated with an example.It is verified that the proposed method can be used to more accurately estimate the maintenance time density function and system maintainability compared with the existing methods.Result shows that in the context of operational test,taking the test data as a multi-failure mode is conducive to more deeply understand the mechanism for the distribution of maintenance time and grasp the specific logic for the maintenance assessment in more detail,thus obtaining more reasonable assessment results.

Key words: operational test, maintainability evaluation, multiple failure modes, Bayes theory, information fusion

郝建平, 裴模超, 高翠娟, 张建军, 孙亚飞. 考虑多故障模式的作战试验维修性评估[J]. 兵工学报, 2025, 46(1): 231189-.

HAO Jianping, PEI Mochao, GAO Cuijuan, ZHANG Jianjun, SUN Yafei. Evaluation of Military Equipment Maintainability in Operational Test Considering Multiple Failure Modes[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2025, 46(1): 231189-.

图/表 5

图1 各故障模式和系统的维修度曲线图

Fig.1 Maintainability curves for each failure mode and the system

表1 σ i 2在 u θ i、 l θ i、 u σ i 2、 l σ i 2不同取值时的估计结果

Table 1 Estimates of σ i 2with different values of u θ i, l θ i, u σ i 2and l σ i 2

序号	$u θ i$	$l θ i$	$u σ i 2$	$l σ i 2$	$σ^i 2$
1	33.420	25.420	34.214	14.214	24.925
2	37.420	21.420	34.214	14.214	25.105
3	45.420	13.420	34.214	14.214	25.108
4	19.420	35.420	34.214	14.214	25.091
5	23.420	39.420	34.214	14.214	25.091
6	37.420	21.420	44.214	4.214	28.975
7	37.420	21.420	42.214	2.214	28.025
8	37.420	21.420	46.214	6.214	29.901

表1 σ i 2在 u θ i、 l θ i、 u σ i 2、 l σ i 2不同取值时的估计结果

Table 1 Estimates of σ i 2with different values of u θ i, l θ i, u σ i 2and l σ i 2

序号	$u θ i$	$l θ i$	$u σ i 2$	$l σ i 2$	$σ^i 2$
1	33.420	25.420	34.214	14.214	24.925
2	37.420	21.420	34.214	14.214	25.105
3	45.420	13.420	34.214	14.214	25.108
4	19.420	35.420	34.214	14.214	25.091
5	23.420	39.420	34.214	14.214	25.091
6	37.420	21.420	44.214	4.214	28.975
7	37.420	21.420	42.214	2.214	28.025
8	37.420	21.420	46.214	6.214	29.901

图2 受试装备抢修作业的状态转移图

Fig.2 State transfer diagram of testequipment in battlefield repairing

表2 模拟维修时间分布参数估计的均方误差和偏差

Table 2 Eestimated mean square errors and deviations of parameters of simulated maintenance time distribution

参数 (θ,σ²)	方法	MSE		DVT
参数 (θ,σ²)	方法	$θ^M S E$	$σ^2 M S E$	$θ^D V T$	$σ^2 D V T$
(32,58)	本文方法	2.78	413.96	0.20	4.28
(32,58)	对比方法	3.16	400.35	0.21	-9.24
(32,78)	本文方法	3.79	742.86	0.28	4.89
(32,78)	对比方法	4.51	765.74	0.29	-13.77
(32,98)	本文方法	5.14	1089.14	0.34	4.57
(32,98)	对比方法	6.03	1179.45	0.33	-17.74
(30,78)	本文方法	3.79	843.33	0.14	9.09
(30,78)	对比方法	4.47	711.21	0.13	-14.23
(35,78)	本文方法	3.83	757.78	0.21	6.67
(35,78)	对比方法	4.44	690.50	0.17	-11.61
(40,78)	本文方法	3.94	781.19	0.08	5.20
(40,78)	对比方法	4.73	793.14	0.06	-13.26

表2 模拟维修时间分布参数估计的均方误差和偏差

Table 2 Eestimated mean square errors and deviations of parameters of simulated maintenance time distribution

参数 (θ,σ²)	方法	MSE		DVT
参数 (θ,σ²)	方法	$θ^M S E$	$σ^2 M S E$	$θ^D V T$	$σ^2 D V T$
(32,58)	本文方法	2.78	413.96	0.20	4.28
(32,58)	对比方法	3.16	400.35	0.21	-9.24
(32,78)	本文方法	3.79	742.86	0.28	4.89
(32,78)	对比方法	4.51	765.74	0.29	-13.77
(32,98)	本文方法	5.14	1089.14	0.34	4.57
(32,98)	对比方法	6.03	1179.45	0.33	-17.74
(30,78)	本文方法	3.79	843.33	0.14	9.09
(30,78)	对比方法	4.47	711.21	0.13	-14.23
(35,78)	本文方法	3.83	757.78	0.21	6.67
(35,78)	对比方法	4.44	690.50	0.17	-11.61
(40,78)	本文方法	3.94	781.19	0.08	5.20
(40,78)	对比方法	4.73	793.14	0.06	-13.26

图3 本文方法和对比方法维修度点估计曲线图

Fig.3 Point estimation curves of maintainability using the proposed method and the comparison method

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