Acta Armamentarii ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (8): 240686-.doi: 10.12382/bgxb.2024.0686
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ZHU Yichao1, FANG Feng1,*(), WANG Zhenya2, PENG Dongliang1
Received:
2024-08-12
Online:
2025-08-28
Contact:
FANG Feng
CLC Number:
ZHU Yichao, FANG Feng, WANG Zhenya, PENG Dongliang. A Target Threat Assessment Approach Based on Intuitionistic Fuzzy Set and Grey Correlation Degree for Warships in Uncertain Scenarios[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2025, 46(8): 240686-.
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不确定程度 | 犹豫度计算参数p |
---|---|
很不确定 | 0.8 |
不确定 | 0.65 |
一般 | 0.5 |
确定 | 0.3 |
很确定 | 0.1 |
Table 1 Correspondence between uncertainty and hesitancy
不确定程度 | 犹豫度计算参数p |
---|---|
很不确定 | 0.8 |
不确定 | 0.65 |
一般 | 0.5 |
确定 | 0.3 |
很确定 | 0.1 |
编号 | C11 | C12 | C31 | C53 | C62 | 相对距 离/km |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 航母 (很确定) | 完好 (确定) | 强 (确定) | 较快 (确定) | 强 (很确定) | [302,344] |
2 | 航母 (很确定) | 完好 (确定) | 强 (确定) | 快 (确定) | 强 (确定) | [311,350] |
3 | 驱逐 (很确定) | 完好 (确定) | 较强 (很确定) | 中等 (一般) | 中等 (很确定) | [353,388] |
4 | 驱逐 (确定) | 良好 (很确定) | 较强 (不确定) | 中等 (确定) | 较强 (一般) | [345,380] |
5 | 护卫 (一般) | 轻伤 (确定) | 中等 (确定) | 中等 (很确定) | 中等 (很确定) | [336,378] |
6 | 护卫 (确定) | 轻伤 (很确定) | 较强 (不确定) | 较慢 (确定) | 较弱 (确定) | [290,331] |
7 | 护卫 (不确定) | 良好 (确定) | 中等 (确定) | 较慢 (确定) | 较弱 (确定) | [404,442] |
8 | 护卫 (一般) | 完好 (一般) | 较弱 (一般) | 较慢 (很确定) | 中等 (很确定) | [410,453] |
9 | 护卫 (确定) | 轻伤 (一般) | 中等 (确定) | 中等 (不确定) | 较弱 (一般) | [387,424] |
Table 2 Preliminary qualitative judgment data of warships in uncertainty scenario
编号 | C11 | C12 | C31 | C53 | C62 | 相对距 离/km |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 航母 (很确定) | 完好 (确定) | 强 (确定) | 较快 (确定) | 强 (很确定) | [302,344] |
2 | 航母 (很确定) | 完好 (确定) | 强 (确定) | 快 (确定) | 强 (确定) | [311,350] |
3 | 驱逐 (很确定) | 完好 (确定) | 较强 (很确定) | 中等 (一般) | 中等 (很确定) | [353,388] |
4 | 驱逐 (确定) | 良好 (很确定) | 较强 (不确定) | 中等 (确定) | 较强 (一般) | [345,380] |
5 | 护卫 (一般) | 轻伤 (确定) | 中等 (确定) | 中等 (很确定) | 中等 (很确定) | [336,378] |
6 | 护卫 (确定) | 轻伤 (很确定) | 较强 (不确定) | 较慢 (确定) | 较弱 (确定) | [290,331] |
7 | 护卫 (不确定) | 良好 (确定) | 中等 (确定) | 较慢 (确定) | 较弱 (确定) | [404,442] |
8 | 护卫 (一般) | 完好 (一般) | 较弱 (一般) | 较慢 (很确定) | 中等 (很确定) | [410,453] |
9 | 护卫 (确定) | 轻伤 (一般) | 中等 (确定) | 中等 (不确定) | 较弱 (一般) | [387,424] |
目标 | 舰船价值 | 侦察能力 | 指控能力 | 打击能力 | 电子战能力 | 拦截能力 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
T1 | <0.900,0.084> | <0.862,0.031> | <0.887,0.053> | <0.848,0.050> | <0.748,0.121> | <0.882,0.046> |
T2 | <0.900,0.084> | <0.847,0.054> | <0.883,0.064> | <0.824,0.074> | <0.786,0.122> | <0.874,0.058> |
T3 | <0.772,0.193> | <0.763,0.159> | <0.717,0.227> | <0.749,0.173> | <0.616,0.263> | <0.679,0.236> |
T4 | <0.700,0.224> | <0.781,0.140> | <0.725,0.117> | <0.766,0.154> | <0.633,0.262> | <0.751,0.140> |
T5 | <0.666,0.167> | <0.785,0.118> | <0.619,0.240> | <0.771,0.134> | <0.638,0.252> | <0.699,0.195> |
T6 | <0.500,0.373> | <0.896,0.010> | <0.638,0.080> | <0.877,0.010> | <0.739,0.022> | <0.782,0.047> |
T7 | <0.560,0.183> | <0.644,0.272> | <0.557,0.328> | <0.629,0.287> | <0.496,0.415> | <0.553,0.346> |
T8 | <0.666,0.182> | <0.620,0.285> | <0.439,0.332> | <0.605,0.300> | <0.479,0.445> | <0.597,0.341> |
T9 | <0.560,0.283> | <0.684,0.234> | <0.570,0.312> | <0.669,0.249> | <0.554,0.309> | <0.575,0.277> |
Table 3 Target attribute quantification
目标 | 舰船价值 | 侦察能力 | 指控能力 | 打击能力 | 电子战能力 | 拦截能力 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
T1 | <0.900,0.084> | <0.862,0.031> | <0.887,0.053> | <0.848,0.050> | <0.748,0.121> | <0.882,0.046> |
T2 | <0.900,0.084> | <0.847,0.054> | <0.883,0.064> | <0.824,0.074> | <0.786,0.122> | <0.874,0.058> |
T3 | <0.772,0.193> | <0.763,0.159> | <0.717,0.227> | <0.749,0.173> | <0.616,0.263> | <0.679,0.236> |
T4 | <0.700,0.224> | <0.781,0.140> | <0.725,0.117> | <0.766,0.154> | <0.633,0.262> | <0.751,0.140> |
T5 | <0.666,0.167> | <0.785,0.118> | <0.619,0.240> | <0.771,0.134> | <0.638,0.252> | <0.699,0.195> |
T6 | <0.500,0.373> | <0.896,0.010> | <0.638,0.080> | <0.877,0.010> | <0.739,0.022> | <0.782,0.047> |
T7 | <0.560,0.183> | <0.644,0.272> | <0.557,0.328> | <0.629,0.287> | <0.496,0.415> | <0.553,0.346> |
T8 | <0.666,0.182> | <0.620,0.285> | <0.439,0.332> | <0.605,0.300> | <0.479,0.445> | <0.597,0.341> |
T9 | <0.560,0.283> | <0.684,0.234> | <0.570,0.312> | <0.669,0.249> | <0.554,0.309> | <0.575,0.277> |
目标编号 | 偏好度 | 目标编号 | 偏好度 |
---|---|---|---|
T1 | <0.864,0.058> | T6 | <0.775,0.040> |
T2 | <0.861,0.072> | T7 | <0.579,0.288> |
T3 | <0.725,0.203> | T8 | <0.585,0.295> |
T4 | <0.732,0.167> | T9 | <0.607,0.274> |
T5 | <0.707,0.173> |
Table 4 Expert preference degree for each target
目标编号 | 偏好度 | 目标编号 | 偏好度 |
---|---|---|---|
T1 | <0.864,0.058> | T6 | <0.775,0.040> |
T2 | <0.861,0.072> | T7 | <0.579,0.288> |
T3 | <0.725,0.203> | T8 | <0.585,0.295> |
T4 | <0.732,0.167> | T9 | <0.607,0.274> |
T5 | <0.707,0.173> |
模型参数α、β | 属性权重ω(ω1~ω6) |
---|---|
W1(α=1、β=0) | [0.167,0.156,0.173,0.159,0.183,0.163] |
W2(α=0.75、β=0.25) | [0.162,0.157,0.170,0.161,0.189,0.160] |
W3(α=0.5、β=0.5) | [0.158,0.159,0.167,0.164,0.195,0.157] |
W4(α=0.25、β=0.75) | [0.152,0.161,0.163,0.167,0.204,0.153] |
W5(α=0、β=1) | [0.146,0.163,0.158,0.170,0.214,0.149] |
Table 5 Optimized results of attribute weights
模型参数α、β | 属性权重ω(ω1~ω6) |
---|---|
W1(α=1、β=0) | [0.167,0.156,0.173,0.159,0.183,0.163] |
W2(α=0.75、β=0.25) | [0.162,0.157,0.170,0.161,0.189,0.160] |
W3(α=0.5、β=0.5) | [0.158,0.159,0.167,0.164,0.195,0.157] |
W4(α=0.25、β=0.75) | [0.152,0.161,0.163,0.167,0.204,0.153] |
W5(α=0、β=1) | [0.146,0.163,0.158,0.170,0.214,0.149] |
目标 | E1 | E2 | E3 |
---|---|---|---|
T1 | <0.79,0.11> | <0.81,0.13> | <0.80,0.12> |
T1 | <0.81,0.12> | <0.84,0.10> | <0.83,0.10> |
T3 | <0.83,0.10> | <0.83,0.12> | <0.84,0.09> |
T4 | <0.85,0.09> | <0.86,0.09> | <0.86,0.07> |
T5 | <0.70,0.15> | <0.74,0.14> | <0.75,0.13> |
T6 | <0.79,0.14> | <0.80,0.12> | <0.82,0.09> |
T7 | <0.90,0.04> | <0.89,0.06> | <0.92,0.03> |
T8 | <0.84,0.09> | <0.87,0.07> | <0.89,0.05> |
T9 | <0.75,0.12> | <0.83,0.10> | <0.79,0.11> |
Table 6 Experts’ evaluation of generalized parameter
目标 | E1 | E2 | E3 |
---|---|---|---|
T1 | <0.79,0.11> | <0.81,0.13> | <0.80,0.12> |
T1 | <0.81,0.12> | <0.84,0.10> | <0.83,0.10> |
T3 | <0.83,0.10> | <0.83,0.12> | <0.84,0.09> |
T4 | <0.85,0.09> | <0.86,0.09> | <0.86,0.07> |
T5 | <0.70,0.15> | <0.74,0.14> | <0.75,0.13> |
T6 | <0.79,0.14> | <0.80,0.12> | <0.82,0.09> |
T7 | <0.90,0.04> | <0.89,0.06> | <0.92,0.03> |
T8 | <0.84,0.09> | <0.87,0.07> | <0.89,0.05> |
T9 | <0.75,0.12> | <0.83,0.10> | <0.79,0.11> |
目标 | W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | 排序 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
T1 | 0.1358 | 0.1357 | 0.1356 | 0.1355 | 0.1353 | 2 |
T2 | 0.1391 | 0.1391 | 0.1389 | 0.1388 | 0.1387 | 1 |
T3 | 0.1090 | 0.1089 | 0.1089 | 0.1088 | 0.1088 | 5 |
T4 | 0.1178 | 0.1177 | 0.1177 | 0.1176 | 0.1176 | 4 |
T5 | 0.0968 | 0.0969 | 0.0969 | 0.0970 | 0.0971 | 6 |
T6 | 0.1270 | 0.1273 | 0.1276 | 0.1281 | 0.1286 | 3 |
T7 | 0.0953 | 0.0952 | 0.0952 | 0.0951 | 0.0951 | 7 |
T8 | 0.0908 | 0.0907 | 0.0906 | 0.0904 | 0.0902 | 8 |
T9 | 0.0884 | 0.0885 | 0.0886 | 0.0886 | 0.0887 | 9 |
Table 7 Target threat score and ranking
目标 | W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | 排序 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
T1 | 0.1358 | 0.1357 | 0.1356 | 0.1355 | 0.1353 | 2 |
T2 | 0.1391 | 0.1391 | 0.1389 | 0.1388 | 0.1387 | 1 |
T3 | 0.1090 | 0.1089 | 0.1089 | 0.1088 | 0.1088 | 5 |
T4 | 0.1178 | 0.1177 | 0.1177 | 0.1176 | 0.1176 | 4 |
T5 | 0.0968 | 0.0969 | 0.0969 | 0.0970 | 0.0971 | 6 |
T6 | 0.1270 | 0.1273 | 0.1276 | 0.1281 | 0.1286 | 3 |
T7 | 0.0953 | 0.0952 | 0.0952 | 0.0951 | 0.0951 | 7 |
T8 | 0.0908 | 0.0907 | 0.0906 | 0.0904 | 0.0902 | 8 |
T9 | 0.0884 | 0.0885 | 0.0886 | 0.0886 | 0.0887 | 9 |
目标 | 舰船 价值 | 侦察 能力 | 指控 能力 | 打击 能力 | 电子战 能力 | 拦截 能力 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
T1 | 0.900 | 0.656 | 0.831 | 0.729 | 0.585 | 0.812 |
T2 | 0.900 | 0.641 | 0.826 | 0.715 | 0.614 | 0.803 |
T3 | 0.750 | 0.569 | 0.668 | 0.643 | 0.475 | 0.595 |
T4 | 0.700 | 0.582 | 0.674 | 0.658 | 0.487 | 0.685 |
T5 | 0.600 | 0.591 | 0.548 | 0.667 | 0.495 | 0.612 |
T6 | 0.500 | 0.681 | 0.450 | 0.751 | 0.523 | 0.587 |
T7 | 0.550 | 0.482 | 0.507 | 0.549 | 0.370 | 0.463 |
T8 | 0.600 | 0.468 | 0.374 | 0.533 | 0.362 | 0.536 |
T9 | 0.550 | 0.511 | 0.515 | 0.580 | 0.427 | 0.476 |
Table 8 Target attribute quantification by AHP
目标 | 舰船 价值 | 侦察 能力 | 指控 能力 | 打击 能力 | 电子战 能力 | 拦截 能力 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
T1 | 0.900 | 0.656 | 0.831 | 0.729 | 0.585 | 0.812 |
T2 | 0.900 | 0.641 | 0.826 | 0.715 | 0.614 | 0.803 |
T3 | 0.750 | 0.569 | 0.668 | 0.643 | 0.475 | 0.595 |
T4 | 0.700 | 0.582 | 0.674 | 0.658 | 0.487 | 0.685 |
T5 | 0.600 | 0.591 | 0.548 | 0.667 | 0.495 | 0.612 |
T6 | 0.500 | 0.681 | 0.450 | 0.751 | 0.523 | 0.587 |
T7 | 0.550 | 0.482 | 0.507 | 0.549 | 0.370 | 0.463 |
T8 | 0.600 | 0.468 | 0.374 | 0.533 | 0.362 | 0.536 |
T9 | 0.550 | 0.511 | 0.515 | 0.580 | 0.427 | 0.476 |
目标 | 综合威胁 | 排序 |
---|---|---|
T1 | 0.760 | 1 |
T2 | 0.756 | 2 |
T3 | 0.624 | 4 |
T4 | 0.637 | 3 |
T5 | 0.592 | 5 |
T6 | 0.589 | 6 |
T7 | 0.492 | 9 |
T8 | 0.492 | 8 |
T9 | 0.514 | 7 |
Table 9 Targets’ comprehensive threat analyzed by AHP
目标 | 综合威胁 | 排序 |
---|---|---|
T1 | 0.760 | 1 |
T2 | 0.756 | 2 |
T3 | 0.624 | 4 |
T4 | 0.637 | 3 |
T5 | 0.592 | 5 |
T6 | 0.589 | 6 |
T7 | 0.492 | 9 |
T8 | 0.492 | 8 |
T9 | 0.514 | 7 |
目标 | 威胁度 | 排序 |
---|---|---|
T1 | 0.133 | 2 |
T2 | 0.138 | 1 |
T3 | 0.115 | 4 |
T4 | 0.123 | 3 |
T5 | 0.094 | 8 |
T6 | 0.104 | 5 |
T7 | 0.104 | 6 |
T8 | 0.098 | 7 |
T9 | 0.091 | 9 |
Table 10 AHP-based target threat score and ranking
目标 | 威胁度 | 排序 |
---|---|---|
T1 | 0.133 | 2 |
T2 | 0.138 | 1 |
T3 | 0.115 | 4 |
T4 | 0.123 | 3 |
T5 | 0.094 | 8 |
T6 | 0.104 | 5 |
T7 | 0.104 | 6 |
T8 | 0.098 | 7 |
T9 | 0.091 | 9 |
程度 | Ex | En | 不确定度 | He |
---|---|---|---|---|
强 | 0.9 | 0.085 | 很不确定 | 0.8 |
较强 | 0.7 | 0.085 | 不确定 | 0.65 |
中等 | 0.5 | 0.085 | 一般 | 0.5 |
较弱 | 0.3 | 0.085 | 确定 | 0.3 |
弱 | 0.15 | 0.042 | 很确定 | 0.1 |
Table 11 Corresponding table of qualitative index cloud model
程度 | Ex | En | 不确定度 | He |
---|---|---|---|---|
强 | 0.9 | 0.085 | 很不确定 | 0.8 |
较强 | 0.7 | 0.085 | 不确定 | 0.65 |
中等 | 0.5 | 0.085 | 一般 | 0.5 |
较弱 | 0.3 | 0.085 | 确定 | 0.3 |
弱 | 0.15 | 0.042 | 很确定 | 0.1 |
目标 | Ex | En | He | 排序 |
---|---|---|---|---|
T1 | 0.759 | 0.056 | 0.124 | 1 |
T2 | 0.756 | 0.055 | 0.132 | 2 |
T3 | 0.616 | 0.066 | 0.103 | 4 |
T4 | 0.630 | 0.065 | 0.190 | 3 |
T5 | 0.557 | 0.055 | 0.181 | 6 |
T6 | 0.614 | 0.057 | 0.207 | 5 |
T7 | 0.478 | 0.054 | 0.206 | 8 |
T8 | 0.477 | 0.054 | 0.194 | 9 |
T9 | 0.491 | 0.054 | 0.187 | 7 |
Table 12 Target comprehensive threat evaluated from cloud model
目标 | Ex | En | He | 排序 |
---|---|---|---|---|
T1 | 0.759 | 0.056 | 0.124 | 1 |
T2 | 0.756 | 0.055 | 0.132 | 2 |
T3 | 0.616 | 0.066 | 0.103 | 4 |
T4 | 0.630 | 0.065 | 0.190 | 3 |
T5 | 0.557 | 0.055 | 0.181 | 6 |
T6 | 0.614 | 0.057 | 0.207 | 5 |
T7 | 0.478 | 0.054 | 0.206 | 8 |
T8 | 0.477 | 0.054 | 0.194 | 9 |
T9 | 0.491 | 0.054 | 0.187 | 7 |
目标 | Ex | En | He | 排序 |
---|---|---|---|---|
T1 | 0.608 | 0.102 | 0.120 | 2 |
T2 | 0.626 | 0.093 | 0.122 | 1 |
T3 | 0.514 | 0.084 | 0.092 | 4 |
T4 | 0.540 | 0.077 | 0.169 | 3 |
T5 | 0.407 | 0.088 | 0.151 | 8 |
T6 | 0.494 | 0.086 | 0.175 | 5 |
T7 | 0.431 | 0.053 | 0.185 | 6 |
T8 | 0.414 | 0.058 | 0.173 | 7 |
T9 | 0.388 | 0.069 | 0.160 | 9 |
Table 13 Corrective target threat ranking based on cloud model
目标 | Ex | En | He | 排序 |
---|---|---|---|---|
T1 | 0.608 | 0.102 | 0.120 | 2 |
T2 | 0.626 | 0.093 | 0.122 | 1 |
T3 | 0.514 | 0.084 | 0.092 | 4 |
T4 | 0.540 | 0.077 | 0.169 | 3 |
T5 | 0.407 | 0.088 | 0.151 | 8 |
T6 | 0.494 | 0.086 | 0.175 | 5 |
T7 | 0.431 | 0.053 | 0.185 | 6 |
T8 | 0.414 | 0.058 | 0.173 | 7 |
T9 | 0.388 | 0.069 | 0.160 | 9 |
目标 | a | b | c | d | e |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
T1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
T2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
T3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
T4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
T5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
T6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
T7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
T8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
T9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
Table 14 Sorting results under different parameter groups
目标 | a | b | c | d | e |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
T1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
T2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
T3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
T4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
T5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
T6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
T7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
T8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
T9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
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