Abstract: A condition assessment model of missile based on Bayesian network (BN) with conditional probability table (CPT) which is determined by using DS evidence theory and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is established for the extensive way and inadequate information resources ultilization of traditional state classification method. Missile state is divided into five grades, i.e., perfect, better, usable, pseudo-fault and fault, based on the analysis of characteristic parameters. Normalization processing is carried out on the test parameters of different units and threshold values, and the modified ridge shape functions are used to determine the degree of membership of all the states. A BN-based condition assessment model of a missile is established. In the view of uncertain logical relationship between nodes and lacking of data, a method is proposed to determine CPT of multi-state Bayesian network on the basis of DS evidence theory and AHP. The result shows that uncertainty is decreased to about five percent by utilizing DS/AHP method to determine CPT. The reasonability and credibility of BN model are verified through horizontal and vertical comparison.Key

Key words: missile, conditionassessment, Bayesiannetwork, DSevidencetheory, analytichierarchyprocess, knowledgematrix