关键词: 合成部队, 战时, 任务成功概率, 随机共因失效, 蒙特卡洛仿真

Abstract: Common cause failure (CCF) is a common phenomenon in the process of equipment carrying out combat tasks, which plays an important role in the evaluation of equipment mission success probability during wartime. The combat mission profile of synthetic forces is developed based on the level analysis of equipment of synthetic forces, and the characteristics of equipment CCF and equipment maintenance support of synthetic forces are analyzed. The mission success requirements of synthetic forces are proposed by taking the mission during attack phase as the research object. In thoroughly considering the impacts of random common cause failure (RCCF), multiple equipment, cooperative operation of multiple combat units, random mission time and replacement repair time on combat mission success probability of synthetic forces, a simulation evaluation model of mission success probability of synthetic forces during wartime is established based on the Monte Carlo method. And then the feasibility and validity of the evaluation model based on simulation is verified by an analytical example. The research results present that the proposed model can be used to evaluate the mission success probability of combined arms during wartime and optimize the time of combat mission; the reasonable allocation of carrying quantity of various spare parts contributes to the improvement of mission success probability of synthetic forces during wartime.

Key words: syntheticforces, wartime, missionsuccessprobability, randomcommoncausefailure, MonteCarlosimulation