基于时序网络仿真和贡献率的预警作战体系任务支持能力评估

doi:10.12382/bgxb.2022.1038

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对预警作战体系任务支持能力评估出现的网络化建模存在能力误差、任务能力缺乏动态特性以及评估结果与现实效果存在一定误差等问题,提出基于时序网络仿真和贡献率的作战体系任务支持能力评估方法。基于预警作战体系的静态网络模型,将其拓展到时序网络层面,并定义时序路径和时序效能环;根据任务层次分解将任务需求和能力进行匹配;建立时序网络和多Agent仿真的映射关系,构建贴近实际作战的仿真框架;利用贡献率的思想在蒙特卡洛仿真数据基础上分析预警作战体系的任务支持能力,将非对称高斯隶属函数表示的不确定指标和统计结果表示的精确指标用相似度权重进行集成,计算得到不同作战单元在体系中的任务支持能力。实验结果表明,所提方法有效可行,能够贴近装备实际能力,缩小与现实结果的评估误差,为体系能力评估和装备需求论证提供了技术支撑。

关键词: 时序网络, 时序效能环, 预警作战体系, 蒙特卡洛仿真, 任务支持能力

Abstract:

In response to the problems of capability errors in networked modelling, lack of dynamic characteristics of mission capabilities, and certain errors between assessment results and realistic effectiveness in the assessment of mission support capabilities of early-warning combat system-of-systems (EWCSOS), a method of assessing the mission support capability of EWCSOS based on temporal network simulation and contribution rate is presented. Firstly, based on the static network model of EWCSOS, it is extended to the temporal combat network, and the time-series path and temporal effectiveness loop are defined. Secondly, the mission requirements and capabilities are matched according to the mission hierarchical decomposition, and then the mapping relation between the temporal network and multi-Agent simulation is established to build a simulation framework which is close to actual operations. Finally, the mission support capability of different combat units in EWCSOS is calculated by using the idea of contribution ratio to analyze the mission support capability of early-warning combat system-of-systems based on simulation data and integrating the uncertain indicators represented by asymmetric Gaussian affiliation functions and precise indicators represented by statistical results with similarity weights. The experimental results indicate that the proposed method is efficient and close to the actual capability of the equipment, and can reduce the evaluation error with realistic results, which provides technical support for the system capability assessment and equipment requirement justification.

Key words: temporal network, temporal effectiveness loop, early-warning combat system-of-systems, Monte Carlo simulation, mission support capability

中图分类号:

E917

俞锦涛, 肖兵, 崔玉竹, 亓冬, 严韬. 基于时序网络仿真和贡献率的预警作战体系任务支持能力评估[J]. 兵工学报, 2024, 45(4): 1237-1251.

YU Jintao, XIAO Bing, CUI Yuzhu, QI Dong, YAN Tao. Mission Support Capability Assessment of Early-warning Combat System-of-systems Based on Temporal Network Simulation and Contribution Rate[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2024, 45(4): 1237-1251.

图/表 20

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效能环	含义
T-O-P-D-A-T	标准的效能环
T-O-O-P-D-A-T	具有协同探测的效能环
T-O-P-P-D-A-T	具有信息交互的效能环
T-O-P-D-D-A-T	具有协同指控的效能环
T-O-O-P-P-D-A-T	具有协同探测和信息交互的效能环
T-O-O-P-D-D-A-T	具有协同探测和指控的效能环
T-O-O-P-P-D-D-A-T	具有协同探测、指控和信息交互的效能环

效能环	含义
T-O-P-D-A-T	标准的效能环
T-O-O-P-D-A-T	具有协同探测的效能环
T-O-P-P-D-A-T	具有信息交互的效能环
T-O-P-D-D-A-T	具有协同指控的效能环
T-O-O-P-P-D-A-T	具有协同探测和信息交互的效能环
T-O-O-P-D-D-A-T	具有协同探测和指控的效能环
T-O-O-P-P-D-D-A-T	具有协同探测、指控和信息交互的效能环

时序网络中的要素	基于多Agent的仿真模型
节点	Agent实体
时序边	Agent实体的关系
节点属性	Agent的能力
时序边属性	Agent的影响关系
网络演化规则	Agent的行为模型

时序网络中的要素	基于多Agent的仿真模型
节点	Agent实体
时序边	Agent实体的关系
节点属性	Agent的能力
时序边属性	Agent的影响关系
网络演化规则	Agent的行为模型

X国作战体系			Y国作战体系
类型	数量	说明	类型	数量	说明
航母	1		航母	1
驱逐舰	2		驱逐舰	3
护卫舰	3		护卫舰	4
潜艇	2	航母前后各1个	潜艇	2	航母前后各1个
预警机	1	舰载机	预警机	2	空中巡逻+引导打击
战斗机M_A	4	舰载机,攻击Y国航母编队	战斗机C_A	4	舰载机
战斗机M_B	4	舰载机,攻击Y国航母编队	战斗机C_B	4	舰载机
战斗机M_C	4	舰载机,攻击Y国航母编队	战斗机C_C	10	陆上起飞
常规导弹	5		轰炸机	1	陆上起飞,与2架C_C协同
卫星	若干	导航、通信、侦察卫星等	常规导弹	10	中远程打击和战略威慑
陆基指挥所	1		地空导弹	8×12	反导拦截
			卫星	若干	导航、通信、侦察卫星等
			陆基指挥中心	1
			陆基多功能雷达	1