基于Kriging模型的液压管道防油击可靠性分析

doi:10.12382/bgxb.2023.1025

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

油击易造成管道破坏和泄漏等问题,传统的液压管道分析多基于确定性参数。由于制造误差、材料离散性以及环境变化等因素,实际工况下的管道参数往往具有随机不确定性。针对此问题,考虑不确定性的影响,建立液压管道的防油击可靠性分析模型。基于管路流固耦合四方程模型,利用特征线法进行油击作用下的管道动态特性分析,并以其引起的压力峰值是否超过屈服强度为判断依据,建立管道防油击的极限状态函数。由于极限状态函数为隐式,构建基于自适应Kriging模型的管道防油击可靠性分析方法,得到管道的油击失效概率。研究结果表明:基于自适应Kriging模型的可靠性方法在满足精度要求的前提下,能够大幅提高计算效率。

关键词: 液压管道, 油击, 可靠性, 特征线法, Kriging模型

Abstract:

The oil hammer can easily lead to the adverse effects such as pipeline damage and leakage. The current analysis for the hydraulic pipe is based on its deterministic parameters, whereas the parameters generally exhibit random uncertainties in actual working conditions due to the manufacturing errors, material dispersion, and environmental changes. To address this issue, a reliability model with anti-oil hammer is developed for the pipe in considering the parameter uncertainties. Based on the four-equation model with fluid-structure interaction, the method of characteristics (MOC) is used for the dynamic characteristic analysis on the pipe subjected to oil hammer. Then a limit state function with anti-oil hammer for the pipe is established based on the criterion whether the oil hammer-induced peak pressure exceedes the yield strength or not. As the limit state function is implicit, a reliability analysis method with anti-oil hammer for the hydraulic pipe is established based on an adaptive Kriging model. Subsequently, the failure probability of the hydraulic pipe under oil hammer is calculated. The results indicate that the reliability analysis method based on the adaptive Kriging model can significantly improve the computational efficiency while meeting the accuracy requirements.

Key words: hydraulic pipe, oil hammer, reliability, method of characteristic, Kriging model

中图分类号:

TH137.7

查从燚, 孙志礼, 刘勤, 董鹏飞. 基于Kriging模型的液压管道防油击可靠性分析[J]. 兵工学报, 2024, 45(12): 4364-4371.

ZHA Congyi, SUN Zhili, LIU Qin, DONG Pengfei. Reliability Analysisfor Anti-oil Hammer of Hydraulic Pipe Based on Kriging Model[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2024, 45(12): 4364-4371.

图/表 9

图1 阀控液压管路系统

Fig.1 Schematic diagram of valve-controlled hydraulic piping system

图2 计算网格与特征线

Fig.2 Computational grid and characteristic lines

表1 实验基本参数[27]

Table 1 Basic parameters for the experiment[27]

参数	数值	参数	数值
L/m	37.23	v₀/(m·s^-1)	0.1
r/m	0.01105	ρ_f/(kg·m^-3)	999.1
υ/(m²·s^-1)	1.13×10^-6	Wh	2.65×10^-4
c/(m·s^-1)	1302	Re	1956
p₀/Pa	4.15×10⁵

图3 管道中部的压力

Fig.3 Pressure at the midpoint of pipe

表2 输入变量的分布及参数

Table 2 Distribution and parameters of input variables

变量	分布类型	均值	方差
L/m	Gauss	1	5×10^-4
d/m	Gauss	0.012	3×10^-4
e/m	Gauss	0.001	5×10^-5
E/GPa	Gauss	206	10.3
σ/MPa	Gauss	205	10.5

图4 响应值G(x)的频率直方图

Fig.4 Frequency histogram of response G(x)

图5 响应值G(x)

Fig.5 Response G(x)

表3 油击可靠性分析结果

Table 3 Results of anti-oil hammar reliability analysis

方法	样本数	失效概率	计算时间/min
MCS方法	2×10⁵	3.515×10^-3	1096.5
本文方法	81	3.705×10^-3	5.05

图6 主动学习所得训练样本

Fig.6 Training samples obtained with the active learning

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