最大熵试验法对航天作动器输出可靠性的评估

doi:10.12382/bgxb.2021.0196

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为解决航天作动器在小子样情况下的输出可靠性评估难题，提出采用最大熵试验法对其可靠性进行评估。该方法针对航天作动器的裕度设计特点，选取作动器的输出力作为表征其输出可靠性的特征量，通过在临界工况点进行试验和计算来实现输出可靠性的评估，并对评估过程进行详细介绍。结果表明：最大熵试验法仅需较少试验子样数即可实现对较高可靠性（置信度0.95下的可靠度0.999 9）的评估，能够显著降低生产和试验费用；评估结果经计量法进行复算，结果一致、可信。

关键词: 航天作动器, 最大熵试验法, 可靠性评估, 试验样本

Abstract: A maximum entropy test method is proposed to evaluate the output reliability of space actuator with small sample size. According to the margin design characteristics of space actuator，the output force of the actuator is selected as the characteristic quantity to represent its output reliability. The output reliability is evaluated by experiment and calculation at critical operating points，and the evaluation process is introduced in detail. The results show that the proposed method can be used to evaluate high reliability (0.999 9 reliability with confidence of 0.95) with only a small number of test samples，and can significantly reduce the cost of production and test. The evaluated results are consistent and credible after recalculation by variables evaluation method.

Key words: spaceactuator, maximumentropytestmethod, reliabilityevaluation, testsample

中图分类号:

V438.4

纪明，卜珺珺，马聪. 最大熵试验法对航天作动器输出可靠性的评估[J]. 兵工学报, 2022, 43(4): 919-923.

JI Ming， BU Junjun， MA Cong. Maximum Entropy Test Method for Evaluating the Output Reliability of Space Actuators[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2022, 43(4): 919-923.

参考文献

［1］张强.火工品可靠性评定方法的分析与研究[J].舰船科学技术, 2010, 32(5):92-94.
ZHANG Q.Analysis and study on reliability assessment method of initiating devices[J]. Ship Science and Technology, 2010, 32(5): 92-94. (in Chinese)
[2］感度试验用数据统计方法:GJB/Z 377A—94[S]．北京：国防科学技术工业委员会, 1995．
Statistical methods for sensitivity tests: GJB/Z 377A—94[S].Beijing: Commission of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense, 1995．(in Chinese)
[3］冯蕴雯, 冯元生.极小子样高可靠性成败型产品试验的贝叶斯评估方法研究[J].机械科学与技术, 1999, 18(2):198-200.
FENG Y W, FENG Y S.Study of Bayes estimation for product test of extreme small-sample high-reliability safe-or-failure pattern[J].Mechanical Science and Technology, 1999, 18(2):198-200. (in Chinese)
[4］刘炳章, 丁同才.小子样验证高可靠性的可靠性评估方法及其应用[J].质量与可靠性, 2004(1):19-22．
LIU B Z, DING T C. Assessment method for validating the high reliability with small samples and its application [J]. Quality and Reliability, 2004(1):19-22. (in Chinese)
[5］彭兢, 黄昊, 向开恒, 等.月球无人采样返回任务概念设想[J].航天器工程, 2010, 19(5):99-104.
PENG J, HUANG H, XIANG K H, et al. Conception design of a lunar robotic sampling and return mission[J］.Space Engineering, 2010, 19(5):99-104.(in Chinese)
[6］纪明, 杨敏勃, 魏连军.CPN药剂在真空和不同温度条件下输出力的试验研究[J].真空与低温, 2019, 25(2):106-110.
JI M, YANG M B, WEI L J. Experimental study on the output force of CPN gunpowder under vacuum and different temperature conditions[J].Vacuum & Cryogenics, 2019, 25(2):106-110.(in Chinese)
[7］火工品可靠性评估方法:GJB 376—1987[S].北京:国防科工委军标出版发行部, 1987.
Assessment method of reliability of initiating devices: GJB 376—1987[S].Beijing:Military Standard Publication Department of Commission of Science Technology and Industry for National Defense, 1987. (in Chinese)
[8］张玉春, 姚俊.小样本成败试验可靠性评估方法[J].哈尔滨师范大学学报, 2006, 22(3):44-46.
ZHANG Y C, YAO J. Reliability estimation methods based on experience information method[J].Natural Science Journal of Harbin Normal University, 2006, 22(3):44-46.(in Chinese)
[9］田玉斌, 王典鹏.火工品发火可靠性小样本鉴定试验方法[J].兵工学报, 2011, 32(4):426-431.
TIAN Y B, WANG D P.A qualification test method for firing reliability of initiator with small samples[J].Acta Armamentarii, 2011, 32(4):426-431.(in Chinese)
[10］张士峰, 樊树江, 张金槐.成败型产品可靠性的Bayes评估[J].兵工学报, 2001, 22(2):238-240.
ZHANG S F, FAN S J, ZHANG J H. Bayesian assessment for product reliability using pass-fail data[J].Acta Armamentarii, 2001, 22(2):238-240. (in Chinese)
[11］刘海涛, 张志华, 董理.成败型产品可靠性的Bayes验收方案研究[J]. 兵工学报, 2016, 37(3):565-569.
LIU H T, ZHANG Z H, DONG L. Bayesian acceptance test scheme for reliability of binomial products[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2016, 37(3):565-569.(in Chinese)
[12］ ZELLNER A.Information processing and Bayesian analysis[J].Journal of Econometrics, 2002, 107(1):41-45.
[13］夏新涛, 叶亮, 李云飞, 等.基于多层自助最大熵法的可靠性评估[J].兵工学报, 2016, 37(7):1317-1329.
XIA X T, YE L, LI Y F, et al. Reliability evaluation based on hierarchical bootstrap maximum entropy method[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2016, 37(7):1317-1329. (in Chinese)
[14］张文杰, 杨华波, 张士峰.基于Bayes混合验前分布的成败型产品可靠性评估[J].兵工学报, 2016, 37(3):505-511.
ZHANG W J, YANG H B, ZHANG S F. Reliability assessment for device with only safe-or-failure pattern based on Bayesian hyprid prior approach[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2016, 37(3):505-511. (in Chinese)
[15］冯广斌, 钱林方.应用贝叶斯方法进行系统可靠性验证[J].兵工学报, 2004, 25(2):178-181.
FENG G B, QIAN L F. A system reliability demonstration method based on Bayes theorem[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2004, 25(2):178-181. (in Chinese)
[16］ KWON Y.The effect of scale parameter in designing reliability demonstration test for lognormal lifetime distribution[J]. Journal of Applied Reliability, 2014, 14(1):53-57.
[17］纪明, 吴启鹏, 杨敏勃.小子样试验法在月球样品容器密封可靠性评估中的应用[J].真空科学与技术学报, 2018, 38(9): 745-749.
JI M, WU Q P, YANG M B. Maximum entropy test for sealing reliability assessment of lunar sample container[J].Chinese Journal of Vacuum Science and Technology, 2018, 38(9):745-749. (in Chinese)
[18］胡松伟.最大熵法在发射装置可靠性评估中的应用[J]. 四川兵工学报, 2014, 35(5):30-32.
HU S W. Maximum entropy method application on missile launching system reliability evaluation[J]. Journal of Ordnance Equipment Engineering, 2014, 35(5):30-32. (in Chinese)
[19］郭维长.论火工装置的抽样试验与可靠性评估问题[J]. 中国空间科学技术, 1999, 37(3):53-57.
GUO W C. Sampling text of initiation device reliability evaluation problem[J].Chinese Space Science and Technology, 1999, 37(3): 53-57.(in Chinese)
[20］张志华.可靠性保证试验的风险分析[J].兵工学报, 2006, 27(6):1060-1063.
ZHANG Z H. Risk analysis of reliability assurance test in the case of exponential distribution[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2006, 27(6)：1060-1063.(in Chinese)
[21］刘杰, 王普, 刘炳章.最大熵试验法及其应用[J].自动化学报, 2007, 33(11):1226-1228.
LIU J, WANG P, LIU B Z.Test method with the maximum entropy and its application[J].Acta Automatica Sinica, 2007, 33(11):1226-1228.(in Chinese)
[22］中国国家标准化管理委员会.统计分布数值表-正态分布: GB 4086.1—83[S].北京:中国标准出版社1983.
China National Standardization Management Committee.Tables for statistical distributions-Normal distribution: GB 4086.1—83[S].Beijing:China Standardization Press, 1983. (in Chinese)
[23］中国国家标准化管理委员会.数据的统计处理和解释正态性检验:GB/T 4882—2001[S].北京:中国标准出版社，2001.
China National Standardization Management Committee. Statistical interpretation of data—normality tests:GB/T 4882—2001[S].Beijing:China Standardization Press, 2001.(in Chinese)

[1]	王博，蒋平，郭波. 基于多源信息融合的航天阀门可靠性评估[J]. 兵工学报, 2022, 43(1): 199-206.
[2]	金俊坤，杨宁国，吕冬雪. 结合单元试验数据的指数型串联系统定时截尾试验可靠性评估方法[J]. 兵工学报, 2019, 40(8): 1756-1760.
[3]	李海洋，谢里阳，李铭，李强，钟海. 一种新的无失效数据可靠性评估方法研究[J]. 兵工学报, 2018, 39(8): 1622-1631.
[4]	闫华，高黎，王魁，漆磊. 大规模多阶段任务系统马尔可夫可靠性模型的存储和计算[J]. 兵工学报, 2016, 37(9): 1715-1720.
[5]	夏新涛，叶亮，李云飞，常振. 基于多层自助最大熵法的可靠性评估[J]. 兵工学报, 2016, 37(7): 1317-1329.
[6]	张文杰，杨华波，张士峰. 基于Bayes混合验前分布的成败型产品可靠性评估[J]. 兵工学报, 2016, 37(3): 505-511.
[7]	朱赛，蔡金燕，孟亚峰，李丹阳，潘刚. 具有故障细胞的胚胎电子阵列上目标电路评估[J]. 兵工学报, 2016, 37(11): 2120-2127.
[8]	盖京波，孔耀. 基于物理特性参数的可靠性评估[J]. 兵工学报, 2015, 36(6): 1104-1109.
[9]	许玉堂，殷永峰，孙静，张弛，刘斌. 基于时间扩展Petri网的实时嵌入式软件体系结构建模及可靠性评估[J]. 兵工学报, 2015, 36(2): 363-373.
[10]	程红伟，陶俊勇，张云安，陈循. 基于F分布的指数型产品环境因子计算方法研究[J]. 兵工学报, 2012, 33(10): 1217-1221.
[11]	赵建印，刘芳，奚文骏. 退化失效与突发失效共存下产品可靠性模型与评估方法研究[J]. 兵工学报, 2011, 32(9): 1136-1139.
[12]	董海平, 赵霞, 蔡瑞娇. 基于信息量等值的火工品可靠性评估小样本方法[J]. 兵工学报, 2011, 32(5): 554-558.
[13]	张士峰，张虹，刘婷，钱山. 基于对数正态假设的系统可靠性评估及试验设计方法[J]. 兵工学报, 2007, 28(1): 63-67.
[14]	张士峰，樊树江，张金槐. 成败型产品可靠性的Bayes评估[J]. 兵工学报, 2001, 22(2): 238-240.
[15]	罗吉庭、罗强. 21个相同F-S火工品串联系统贮存可靠性评估[J]. 兵工学报, 1997, 18(1): 33-37.