舰船发电系统多状态可靠性马尔可夫报酬模型

doi:10.12382/bgxb.2022.0558

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对舰船发电系统的多状态特征,考虑舰船计划维修间隔期对系统可靠性参数的影响,利用马尔可夫报酬模型构建冷储备结构的发电系统状态转移矩阵、报酬矩阵、报酬函数和系统需求满足函数,通过对报酬矩阵元素的合理赋值,获得系统区间可用度、平均可工作时间、平均停机时间、平均故障次数、计划维修间隔期内系统可靠度等参数,并通过算例验证模型正确性和适用性,分析系统计划维修间隔时间、单机组平均修复时间等指标对系统可靠性参数的影响,为研究舰船发电系统可靠性设计提供建模工具,为合理安排舰船装备维修结构提供技术支持。研究结果验证了马尔可夫报酬模型在复杂多状态系统可靠性建模和计算方面的便捷性和灵活性。

关键词: 舰船发电系统, 可靠性, 多状态, 马尔可夫报酬模型

Abstract:

A multi-state cold standby power generation system of naval ship is investigated. Considering the influences of scheduled maintenance interval on the system reliability parameters, the state-transitions matrix, reward matrix, reward function and acceptability function of power generation system are designed to analyze the system reliability based on Markov reward model (MRM). When the reasonable values are assigned to the elements of reward matrix, several performance measures of interest, such as the system interval availability, mean operational time, mean down time, mean number of system failures and system reliability in the scheduled maintenance interval, are obtained. Then the validity and applicability of the model are implemented through a numerical application. The influences of scheduled maintenance interval and mean time to repair of single generator unit on system reliability measures are demonstrated. In brief, this research provides a modeling tool for the reliability design of ship power generation systemreliability and the technical support for reasonable arrangement of ship maintenance structure. The whole modeling process shows that MRM can be used to analyze and calculate the reliability of complex multi-state system conveniently.

Key words: ship power generation system, reliability, multi-state, Markov reward model

中图分类号:

TB114.3

陈童, 胡斌, 狄鹏. 舰船发电系统多状态可靠性马尔可夫报酬模型[J]. 兵工学报, 2023, 44(10): 3177-3186.

CHEN Tong, HU Bin, DI Peng. Multi-state System Reliability Analysis for Ship Power Generation System Based on Markov Reward Model[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2023, 44(10): 3177-3186.

图/表 10

图1 舰船发电系统状态转移图

Fig.1 State-transitions diagram of ship power generation system

图2 系统工作时间t与系统区间可用度Ai(t)的关系

Fig.2 Relationship between the system online time t and the system interval availability Ai(t)

图3 单机组平均修复时间对系统区间可用度Ai(t)的影响

Fig.3 Influence of mean time to repair of single unit on the system interval availability Ai(t)

图4 系统工作时间t与系统平均可工作时间MOTi(t)的关系

Fig.4 Relationship between system online time t and mean operational time MOTi(t)

图5 系统工作时间t与系统平均停机时间MDTi(t)的关系

Fig.5 Relationship between system online time t and mean down time MDTi(t)

图6 系统工作时间t与系统平均故障次数Ni(t)的关系

Fig.6 Relationship between system online time t and mean number of system failures Ni(t)

图7 系统工作时间t与系统可靠度Rei(t)的关系(μM=μS=150次/a)

Fig.7 Relationship between the system online time t and system reliability Rei(t) (μM=μS=150times per year)

图8 系统工作时间t与系统可靠度Rei(t)的关系(μM=μS=500次/a)

Fig.8 Relationship between system online time t and system reliability Rei(t) (μM=μS=500 times per year)

图9 单机组平均修复时间对系统可靠度Rei(1)的影响

Fig.9 The influence of mean time to repair of single unit on the system reliability Rei(1)

图10 单机组平均修复时间对系统可靠度Rei(3)的影响

Fig.10 Influence of mean time to repair of single unit on the system reliability Rei(3)

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