Small Sample Circular Error Probable Estimation Based on Fusing Simulation and Flight Test Data

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2021.02.016

Abstract

Abstract: When Bayes method is used to evaluate the circular error probable (CEP), the simulation data is easy to “submerge” the live ammunition flight test data, which often leads to the ineffectiveness or even mistake of evaluated results. To solve this problem, a flight and simulation data fusion algorithm based on “effective sample” and a small sample CEP evaluation method for fusing simulation data and flight data are proposed. The evaluation model of sampling efficiency in importance sampling method is used to measure the deviation between the simulation prior distribution and the overall distribution, and the simulation prior distribution considering the deviation of simulation prior information is established. In the process of fusion evaluation, the weights of simulation samples are calculated according to the deviation between the prior distribution and the overall distribution and the sample size, instead of the original method only relying on the test times of prior test. Experiments and application cases show that the proposed method is significantly better than the traditional method in CEP estimation, which can effectively solve the problem of small sample CEP evaluation in equipment evaluation and validation test.

Key words: equipmentevaluationandvalidationtest, circularerrorprobable, testdatafusion, Bayesmethod, smallsampletest

CLC Number:

TJ765.4⁺3

NING Xiaolei, WU Yingxia， ZHAO Xin. Small Sample Circular Error Probable Estimation Based on Fusing Simulation and Flight Test Data[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2021, 42(2): 388-398.

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