Step Stress Accelerated Degradation Test Modeling and Remaining Useful Life Estimation in Consideration of Measuring Error

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2017.08.017

Abstract

Abstract: Accelerated degradation test (ADT) has been developed into a main test method, which can be used to estimate the reliability and remaining useful life (RUL) of products with high reliability and long life. In order to study the effect of measurement error on the estimation of RUL in the step stress accelerated degradation test, a degradation process modeling based on Wiener process model considering the measurement error and the individual variation is proposed. The drift coefficient of Wiener process is randomized to describe the individual variation in different equipment, and the probability density function of life distribution is obtained at first hitting time. The maximum likelihood estimation method is used to estimate the unknown parameters introduced in the model. Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the performance degradation of laser. The results show that the fitting of model and the accuracy of RUL estimation in the degradation model considering the measurement error are better than those in the model without considering the measurement error, which can enhance the estimation accuracy of reliability and the prediction accuracy of RUL.Key

Key words: probabilitytheory, stochasticprocess, remainingusefullifeestimation, stepstress, measurementerror, maximumlikelihoodestimation

CLC Number:

TB114.37

LIU Xiao-ping， ZHANG Li-jie， SHEN Kai-kai， GAO Qiang. Step Stress Accelerated Degradation Test Modeling and Remaining Useful Life Estimation in Consideration of Measuring Error[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2017, 38(8): 1586-1592.

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第38卷
第8期2017 年8月兵工学报ACTA
ARMAMENTARIIVol.38No.8Aug.2017

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