Abstract: The test samples are limited for reliability qualification test of weapon system in most cases, therefore more engineering tests are difficult to be implemented. In order to evaluate fully the reliability index of weapon system, the reliability growth progress is described by using discrete AMSAA model, and the point estimation of reliability is obtained. The determination method of prior distribution, which is relatively objective and conservative, is presented by comparing the evaluated result of reliability growth test and the specified value of development general requirements. The determination thought and method of reliability qualification test scheme are proposed based on Bayes theory. The operating steps of determination method are illustrated by taking a weapon for example. It also demonstrates that the proposed method is available for engineering. The numerical simulations show that the determination method can be used to reduce the number of tests effetely on the precondition of test evaluation requirements. Key

Key words: probabilitytheory, reliabilityqualificationtest, reliabilitygrowth, discreteAMSAAmodel