Analysis of Influencing Factors on Reliability of Varable Depth Submarine-launched System Based on Multivariate StepwiseRegression

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2017.05.019

Abstract

Abstract: Reliability of underwater varable depth launching system is affected by various influencing factors. The weight and offsetting of projectile are studied by multivariate stepwise regression analysis method, and the second-order algorithm of the models is established. Design deviation, charge performance deviation and environmental factos are taken into account. The relativity analysis for each factor is carried out based on the live firing performance test information of a certain type submarine-launched missile. The effects of the influencing factors, correlation coefficients of each factor and best regression subset are discussed. The results of the regression analysis accords well with the live firing phenomena. Based on this method, the experimental results indicate that the estamated error standard deviation of functional reliability parameter is improved. Multiple stepwise regression method improves the estimation precision. It is feasible and effective to analyze the influencing factors. Key

Key words: ordnancescienceandtechnology, changeble-depthlaunch, performancereliability, influencingfactor, multiplestepwiseregressionanalysis

CLC Number:

TJ762.4⁺1

HU Song-wei. Analysis of Influencing Factors on Reliability of Varable Depth Submarine-launched System Based on Multivariate StepwiseRegression[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2017, 38(5): 986-994.

References

［1］胡松伟. 潜射内弹道性能折算与评估方法[J].兵工学报, 2015, 36(9): 1647-1653.
HU Song-wei. Converting and evaluation method for submarine launched interior ballistic functional[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2015, 36(9): 1647-1653.(in Chinese)
[2] 方开泰, 刘民干, 周永道．试验设计与建模[M]．北京:高等教育出版社, 2011.
FANG Kai-tai, LIU Min-gan, ZHOU Yong-dao. Design and modeling of experiments[M]. Beijing:Higher Education Press, 2011.(in Chinese)
[3] 李乃宏, 吴瑶华. 多重共线性诊断及其在飞行器非线性气动

模型结构确定和参数估计中的应用[J]. 宇航学报, 2000, 21(3): 24-28.
LI Nai-hong, WU Yao-hua. Multicolinearity diagnosis and its application to the determinaton and parameter estimation of nonlinear aerodynamic model[J]. Journal of Astronautics, 2000, 21(3): 24-28. (in Chinese)
[4] 刘庆明, 刘丽斌, 汪建平, 等. 烟酸粉尘云爆炸极限的逻辑回归分析[J]. 兵工学报, 2015, 36(3): 523-529.
LIU Qing-ming, LIU Li-bin, WANG Jian-ping, et al. Logistic regression analysis of the explosion limit of nicotinic acid dust cloud[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2015, 36(3): 523-529.(in Chinese)
[5] 卢家莉, 李彬华, 胡泊. 一种电子倍增CCD电子倍增增益的确定方法[J]. 兵工学报, 2015, 36(4): 710-715.
LU Jia-li, LI Bin-hua, HU Po. A method of determining EMCCD electron multiplication gain[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2015, 36(4): 710-715.(in Chinese)
[6] 陈亮, 刘荣忠, 郭锐, 等. 扭曲尾翼弹箭气动外形多目标优化[J].兵工学报, 2016, 37(7): 1187-1193.
CHEN Liang, LIU Rong-zhong, GUO Rui, et al. Multi-objective optimization on aerodynamic shape of projectile with twisted empennages[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2016, 37(7): 1187-1193. (in Chinese)
[7] 何晓群, 闵素芹, 方开泰. 实用回归分析[M]. 北京:高等教育出版社, 2014.
HE Xiao-qun, MIN Su-qin, FANG Kai-tai. Practical regression analysis[M]. Beijing:Higher Education Press, 2014.(in Chinese)
[8] 道格拉斯C.蒙哥马利, 伊丽莎白A.派克, G.杰弗里·瓦伊宁. 线性回归分析导论[M]. 王辰勇, 译. 北京:机械工业出版社, 2016.
Montgomery D C, Peck E A, Vining G G. Introduction to linear regression analysis[M]. WANG Chen-yong, translated. Beijing: China Machine Press, 2016. (in Chinese)
[9] 曹宁, 王晓锋, 徐亚栋, 等. 车载炮射击密集度逐步回归分析[J]. 弹道学报, 2012, 24(12): 47-53.
CAO Ning, WANG Xiao-feng, XU Ya-dong, et al. Evaluation on firing dispersion of wheeled artillery based on stepwise regression analysis[J]. Journa1 of Ballistics, 2012, 24(12): 47-53. (in Chinese)

第38卷第5期
2017 年5月兵工学报ACTA
ARMAMENTARIIVol.38No.5May2017

[1]	LI Shurui， DUAN Zhuoping， ZHENG Baohui， LUO Guan， HUANG Fenglei. Cylinder Test and Equation of State for DNAN-based Aluminized Melt-cast Explosive [J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2021, 42(7): 1424-1430.
[2]	LOU Wei-peng, ZHENG Chang-song, LI He-yan, CHEN Jian-wen, ZHANG Zhou-li, MA Yuan. Research on Critical Open and Close Pressures of an Oil Discharge Valve for High Speed Wet Shifting Clutch [J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2017, 38(9): 1665-1672.
[3]	WANG Xian-cheng, YANG Shao-qing, MA Ning, ZHAO Wen-zhu. Research on Wear Model for Cylinder Liners in Vehicle Diesel Engines under Dynamic Load [J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2017, 38(9): 1673-1680.
[4]	SUN Hao-ze, CHANG Tian-qing, WANG Quan-dong, KONG De-peng, DAI Wen-jun. Image Detection Method for Tank and Armored Targets Based on Hierarchical Multi-scale Convolution Feature Extraction [J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2017, 38(9): 1681-1691.
[5]	ZHANG Yu-yan, SUN Sha-sha, WANG Zhen-chun, CAO Hai-yao, ZHAN Zai-ji. Simulation and Measurement of Surface Transient Temperature Field of High-speed Current-carrying Armature [J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2017, 38(9): 1692-1698.
[6]	LI Chen-ming， HUAN Chao， SHI Huai-long. Optimal Fire Distribution of a Rocket Launcher against Area Target [J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2017, 38(9): 1699-1704.
[7]	LEI Juan-mian, ZHANG Jia-wei, TAN Zhao-ming. Influence of Boattail on the Magnus Effect of Spinning Non-finned Projectile at Small Angles of Attack [J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2017, 38(9): 1705-1715.
[8]	LI Ze, YAN Xiao-peng, LI Ping, HAO Xin-hong, WANG Jian-tao. Jamming Mechanism of Frequency Sweep Jamming to FM Doppler Fuze [J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2017, 38(9): 1716-1722.
[9]	ZHANG Hao-wei, XIE Jun-wei, ZHANG Zhao-jian, ZONG Bin-feng, CHEN Tang-jun. Task Scheduling of Phased Array Radar Based on Hybrid Adaptive Genetic Algorithm [J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2017, 38(9): 1761-1770.
[10]	LI Mao， HOU Hai-liang， ZHU Xi， HUANG Xiao-ming， LI Dian， CHEN Chang-hai， HU Nian-ming. Influence of Structural Interspace on Anti-penetration Performance of Para-aramid Fiber-reinforced Composite Armor System [J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2017, 38(9): 1797-1805.
[11]	WANG Jian, HAN Yan, WANG Li-ming, ZHANG Pi-zhuang, CHEN Ping. Estimation Method for Instantaneous Frequency of Echo Signal of Projectile in Bore [J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2017, 38(9): 1806-1814.
[12]	LIU Hai-ou, ZHANG Wen-sheng, XU Yi, ZHAO Zi-ye. Load Spectrum Compiling for Transmission Shaft of Tracked Vehicle Based on Kernel Density Estimation [J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2017, 38(9): 1830-1838.
[13]	JIANG Miao-wen , YAN Jian-zhuo, CHEN Ji-min. 3D Printing of Military Helmet Liner Structure Based on Topology Optimization [J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2017, 38(9): 1845-1853.
[14]	ZHANG Lei, LI Shi-min, ZHU Gang. Study of Equipment Material Demand Prediction Method Based on Time-continuous Grey Markov Model [J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2017, 38(9): 1862-1866.
[15]	ZHANG Ya-zhou, LI Zhen-xiao, CHENG Nian-kai, TIAN Hui, LI Bao-ming. Research on a Triggered Vacuum Switch Pulsed Power Supply [J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2017, 38(8): 1469-1475.