基于物理特性参数的可靠性评估

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2015.06.020

兵工学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (6): 1104-1109.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2015.06.020

基于物理特性参数的可靠性评估

盖京波，孔耀

(哈尔滨工程大学航天与建筑工程学院，黑龙江哈尔滨 150001)

收稿日期:2014-07-21 修回日期:2014-07-21 上线日期:2015-08-03
通讯作者: 盖京波 E-mail:gaijingbo@hrbeu.edu.cn
作者简介:盖京波（1976—），男，副教授，硕士生导师
基金资助:
中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金项目(HEUCF130208)

Reliability Assessment Based on Physical Parameters

GAI Jing-bo， KONG Yao

（College of Aerospace and Civil Engineering， Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001，Heilongjiang，China）

Received:2014-07-21 Revised:2014-07-21 Online:2015-08-03
Contact: GAI Jing-bo E-mail:gaijingbo@hrbeu.edu.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在运用科学的评估方法进行装备任务可靠性评估时，针对大型机械装备在有限的试验时间内难以得到足够的失效数据，甚至没有失效数据的问题，基于物理特性参数进行任务可靠性评估成为行之有效的途径。简述了基于物理特性参数任务可靠性评估的基本流程，探讨了基于Kendall相关系数的系统非线性相关性分析方法和基于核回归的输入输出变量回归关系建模方法，并给出了基于核回归的输出参数条件概率分布理论和装置任务可靠性评估方法。以某大型复杂机械液压装置为例，通过监测装备的性能参数变化，使用可靠度的计算方法，实现了装置任务可靠性水平评估的目的。

关键词: 数理统计学, 可靠性评估, 物理特性参数, Kendall相关性分析, 核回归建模

Abstract: A scientific evaluation method used to evaluate mission reliability is difficult to get enough failure data in limited testing time for the large mechanical equipment, or even get no failure data. Reliability assessment based on physical parameters has become an effective way. The reliability assessment process based on physical parameters is briefly described. The system nonlinear correlation analysis method based on the Kendall correlation coefficient and the relation between input and output variables based on kernel regression modeling method are discussed. The output parameters of the conditional probability distribution theory based on kernel regression and device reliability evaluation methods are given. A large complex mechanical hydraulic equipment is evaluated, which monitors the performance parameters in order to use the reliability calculation method to achieve the mission reliability assessment.

Key words: mathematical statistics, reliability evaluation, physical parameter, Kendall correlation analysis, kernel regression modeling

中图分类号:

盖京波，孔耀. 基于物理特性参数的可靠性评估[J]. 兵工学报, 2015, 36(6): 1104-1109.

GAI Jing-bo， KONG Yao. Reliability Assessment Based on Physical Parameters[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2015, 36(6): 1104-1109.

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基于物理特性参数的可靠性评估

Reliability Assessment Based on Physical Parameters

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