关键词: 运筹学, 需求预测, 模糊推理, Markov 预测, 备件

Abstract:

A new fuzzy inference-based wartime spares demand forecasting method is presented for the uncertainty and stage-relativity of the spares demand during multi-stage war, in which expert forecasting value and Markov forecasting value are combined. The result is obtained according to the Mamdani-style inference mechanism and defuzzification. The fuzzy set of demand is defined by linguistic variable naturally, which is introduced in Markov forecasting to describe the system state directly. The validity of the method is illustrated by an example.

Key words: operation research, demand forecasting, fuzzy inference, Markov forecasting, spares