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Acta Armamentarii ›› 2021, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (1): 199-208.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2021.01.023

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Simulation Evaluation of Mission Success Probability of Synthetic Forces during Wartime Considering Random Common CauseFailure

WANG Shuangchuan1, JIA Xisheng1, HU Qiwei1, CAO Wenbin2, GUO Chiming1   

  1. (1.Department of Equipment Command and Management, Shijiazhuang Campus, Army Engineering University, Shijiazhuang 050003, Hebei, China; 2.Department of Service Support, Command College of People's Armed Police, Tianjin 300100, China)
  • Online:2021-03-11

Abstract: Common cause failure (CCF) is a common phenomenon in the process of equipment carrying out combat tasks, which plays an important role in the evaluation of equipment mission success probability during wartime. The combat mission profile of synthetic forces is developed based on the level analysis of equipment of synthetic forces, and the characteristics of equipment CCF and equipment maintenance support of synthetic forces are analyzed. The mission success requirements of synthetic forces are proposed by taking the mission during attack phase as the research object. In thoroughly considering the impacts of random common cause failure (RCCF), multiple equipment, cooperative operation of multiple combat units, random mission time and replacement repair time on combat mission success probability of synthetic forces, a simulation evaluation model of mission success probability of synthetic forces during wartime is established based on the Monte Carlo method. And then the feasibility and validity of the evaluation model based on simulation is verified by an analytical example. The research results present that the proposed model can be used to evaluate the mission success probability of combined arms during wartime and optimize the time of combat mission; the reasonable allocation of carrying quantity of various spare parts contributes to the improvement of mission success probability of synthetic forces during wartime.

Key words: syntheticforces, wartime, missionsuccessprobability, randomcommoncausefailure, MonteCarlosimulation

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