Consumption Forecasting of Missile Spare Parts Based on Rough SetEntropy Weight and Improved SVM

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2012.10.016

Abstract

Abstract: On the basis of analyzing systemically present research condition of forecast method toward weapon and equipment spare parts and consumption characteristic of missile spare parts, the paper brought forward the thought of applying forecast model composed of rough set (RS), entropy weight (EW), and weighted least squares support vector machine (WLS-SVM) with adaptive particle swarm optimization (APSO) to consumption forecasting of missile spare parts. Firstly, the paper presentes basic theory, improves on search mode of APSO and weighted method of least squares support vector machine(LS-SVM); secondly , the consumption forecasting model of missile spareparts is established based on RS, EW and WLS-SVM with APSO, and realization process is analyzed. The example results show that the combinatorial forecasting model has better forecast precision and important applied value in the course of consumption forecasting of missile spare parts.

CLC Number:

E927

ZHAO Jian-zhong, XU Ting-xue, LIU Yong,YIN Yan-tao. Consumption Forecasting of Missile Spare Parts Based on Rough SetEntropy Weight and Improved SVM[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2012, 33(10): 1258-1265.

References

［1］张益铭,徐晓钟,王智庆.支持向量机与时间序列预测综述[J].计算机应用与软件,2010,27(12):127-157.
ZHANG Yi-ming, XU Xiao-zhong, WANG Zhi-qing. An overview of support vector machine and time series forecasting [J].Computer Applications and Software,2010,27(12):127-157. (in Chinese)
[2］任博,张恒喜,苏畅.基于支持向量机的飞机备件需求预测[J].火力与指挥控制,2005,30(3):78-80.
REN Bo, ZHANG Heng-xi, SU Chang. Requirement prediction of aircraft spare parts based on support vector machines [J].Fire Control & Command Control, 2005,30(3):78-80. (in Chinese)
[3］王宏焰,高崎,王家鹏.支持向量回归机在装备维修器材消耗预测中的应用[J].物流技术,2008,27(8):246-250.
WANG Hong-yan, GAO Qi , WANG Jia-peng. Application of support vector regression in consumption prediction of equipment maintenance materials[J]. Logistics Technology, 2008,27(8):246-250. (in Chinese)
[4］薛彦轶,刘晓东.基于最小二乘支持向量机的航材备件需求建模[J].兵工自动化,2007,26(6):27-33.
XUE Yan-yi, LIU Xiao-dong. Demand model of aeronautical material spare parts based on least squares support vector machines[J].Ordnance Industry Automation,2007,26(6):27-33. (in Chinese)
[5］ Du S X, Wu T J. Weighted support vector machines for regression and its application[J].Journal of Zhejiang University,2004,38(3):321-336.
[6］陈其松,陈孝威,张欣,等.基于粒子群优化支持向量机的火电厂主汽温预测模型[J].微电子学与计算机,2010,27(7):218-224.
CHEN Qi-song, CHEN Xiao-wei, ZHANG Xin, et al. Main stream temperature forecasting model based on QPSO and SVM in power plant[J].Microelectronics & Computer,2010,27(7):218-224. (in Chinese)
[7］张文修,吴伟志,梁吉业,等.粗糙集理论与方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2005:136-258.
ZHANG Wen-xiu, WU Wei-zhi, LIANG Ji-ye, et al. Rough set theory and method[M].Beijing: Science Press,2005:136-258. (in Chinese)
[8］王国伟,闫丽,姚玉霞.基于熵权法加权的模糊C均值聚类算法研究[J].农业网络信息,2010,12(8):148-153.
WANG Guo-wei, YAN Li, YAO Yu-xia. Research on weighted fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm based on entropy weight method[J].Agriculture Network Information,2010,12(8):148-153. (in Chinese)
[9］ Sidhartha P, Narayana P P. Comparison of particle swarm optimization and genetic algorithm for FACTS-based controller design[J].Applied Soft Computing, 2008,8(4):1418-1427.
[10］ Krink T, Vesterstroem J S, Riget J. Particle swarm optimization with spatial particle extension[C]∥Proceedings of the IEEE Congress on Evolutionary Computation. Hawaii: IEEE Press,2002:1474-1479.
[11］ Miranda V, Fonseca N.EPSO-best-of-tow-worlds metaheuristic applied to power system problems[C]∥Proceedings of the IEEE Congress on Evolutionary Computation. Hawaii: IEEE Press,2002:1080-1085.
[12］刘佳,李丹,高立群,等.基于自适应粒子群支持向量机的短期电力负荷预测[J].东北大学学报: 自然科学版, 2007,28(9):1229-1232.
LIU Jia, LI Dan, GAO Li-qun, et al. A short-term load forecasting approach based on support vector machine with adaptive particle swarm optimization algorithm[J].Journal of North Eastern University: Natual Science,2007,28(9):1229-1232. (in Chinese)
[13］ Huang L, Wang H W. Forecasting stock market movement direction with support vector machine [J].Computers & Operations Research,2005,32(10): 2513-2522.
[14］ Suykens J A K. Least squares support vector machines[M].Singapore: World Scientific Publishing Co Pte Ltd, 2002:71-89.
[15］ Suykens J A K, De Brabanter J, Lukas L, et al. Weighted least squares support vector machines: robustness and sparse approximation[J].Neurocomputing,2002,48(1-4):85-105.
[16］ Cummins D J, Andrews C W. Iteratively re-weighted partial least squares: a performance analysis by Monte Carlo simulation[J].Journal of Chemometrics,1995,9(6):489-507.
[17］笪勇,侍洪波.改进的加权最小二乘支持向量机在德士古炉温软测量中的应用[J].华东理工大学学报:自然科学版,2010,36(5):717-722.
DA Yong, SHI Hong-bo. A new weighted least square support vector machine and its application in the temperature measurement of texaco slurry gasifier[J].Journal of East China University of Science and Technology: Natual Science, 2010,36(5):717-722. (in Chinese)
[18］ Olivier C, Vladimir V, Olivier B, et al. Choosing multiple parameters for support vector machines[J］. Machine Learning,2002,46(7):131-159.

[1]	LEI Liang, ZHOU Danfa, ZHANG Ying, GU Cunfeng, LIU Rui. Life Cycle Cost Analysis and Control Strategy of Missile Weapons [J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2022, 43(S2): 107-114.
[2]	SONG Guibao， JIANG Zijie， LIU Zhan， LIU Zhenyu. Optimization Model of Multi-type Shore-to-ship Missile Combat Unit Deployment [J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2021, 42(4): 878-887.
[3]	SUO Zhong-ying， CHENG Si-yi， YUAN Xiu-jiu， LI Yan-ming. Rule Acquisition Method and Application of Dominance Decision-making Information System [J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2015, 36(3): 539-544.
[4]	DONG Jin-long, MO Bo. Observerbility Analysis of Rocket MEMS-INS/GNSS Integrated Navigation System Attitude in Classic Trajectories [J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2014, 35(6): 850-856.
[5]	LI Jun, MENG Tao, ZHANG Li-xin, ZHAO Shao-ping. Research on Evaluation Method for Quality and Performance of Missile Weapon Based on Rough Set Rule Extraction [J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2013, 34(12): 1529-1535.
[6]	LIU Jian-ning, JIANG Jun-biao, SHI Shun-xiang, MA Jia-jun, GUO Qiang. Optimization Analysis of Frequency Stabilization Servo System of Prisms Laser Gyro [J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2013, 34(7): 821-827.