基于结构方程模型的武器装备体系涌现性度量模型

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2020.02.024

兵工学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (2): 406-416.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2020.02.024

• 论文 • 上一篇

基于结构方程模型的武器装备体系涌现性度量模型

齐小刚^1，4，刘学星¹，张博孜^2,3，翟豆豆¹

(1.西安电子科技大学数学与统计学院，陕西西安 710071； 2.国防科技工业海洋安全体系创新中心，北京 100094；3.中国船舶工业系统工程研究院，北京 100094；4.中国电子科技集团有限公司数据链技术重点实验室，陕西西安 710068)

收稿日期:2019-04-03 修回日期:2019-04-03 上线日期:2020-04-04
通讯作者: 齐小刚（1973—），男，教授，博士生导师 E-mail:xgqi@xidian.edu.cn
作者简介:刘学星（1993—），女，硕士研究生。E-mail:1060774649@qq.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(61877067、61572435)；数据链技术重点实验室开放基金项目(CLDL-20182115)；西安市科技创新项目（201805029YD7CG13-6）；装备预先研究联合基金项目（6141B03010103、6141B03090203）

Emergence Measurement Model of Armament Systems Based on SEM

QI Xiaogang^1,4， LIU Xuexing¹， ZHANG Bozi^2,3， ZHAI Doudou¹

(1.School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xidian University, Xi'an 710071, Shaanxi, China;2.Marine Safety System Innovation Center, Science and Technology for National Defense, Beijing 100094, China;3.China Shipbuilding Industry Systems Engineering Research Institute, Beijing 100094, China;4.Key Laboratory of Data Link Technology, China Electronics Technology Group Corporation， Xi'an 710068， Shaanxi, China)

Received:2019-04-03 Revised:2019-04-03 Online:2020-04-04

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对武器装备体系作战能力涌现性难以评估和度量的问题，提出了武器装备体系作战能力涌现性的度量模型。以复杂自适应系统为视角建立作战能力涌现性的概念模型，并剖析体系中各个子系统的内在因素，从而建立评价度量模型作战能力的指标体系；根据指标体系构建线性和非线性涌现的结构方程模型（SEM）；结合两种SEM度量模型构造了模型参数结构方程。为验证所提武器装备体系作战能力涌现性度量模型的性能，以某航母编队反舰作战为例，采用结构方程模型分析软件LISREL 8.70得到SEM的参数估计值，进而确定两种SEM结构方程。根据该方程进行作战能力评估，结果显示，与线性涌现的SEM相比，非线性模型更接近实际作战能力。

关键词: 武器装备体系, 涌现性, 结构方程模型, 作战能力

Abstract: A measurement model for the emergence of the combat capability in armament systems is established for assessing and measuring the emergence of the combat capability of armament systems. Firstly, in view of a complex adaptive system (CAS), a conceptual model of the emergence of combat capability is constructed, and the internal factors of each subsystem in the system are analyzed, thus establishing the index system to evaluate the combat capability of measurement model. And then the linear and nonlinear emerging structural equation modeling (SEM) models are established according to the index system. Finally, the structural equations of model parameters are built based on two SEM measurement models. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, the model parameters are verified using structural equation modeling software LISREL8.70 by taking an aircraft carrier formation anti-ship warfare as an example, and then the two SEM structural equations are determined. The structural equations are used to evaluate the combat capability. The results show that the nonlinear model is closer to the actual combat capability than the linear emergent SEM model. Key

Key words: armamentsystem, emergence, structuralequationmodeling, combatcapability

中图分类号:

E917
N945.12

齐小刚，刘学星，张博孜，翟豆豆. 基于结构方程模型的武器装备体系涌现性度量模型[J]. 兵工学报, 2020, 41(2): 406-416.

QI Xiaogang， LIU Xuexing， ZHANG Bozi， ZHAI Doudou. Emergence Measurement Model of Armament Systems Based on SEM[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2020, 41(2): 406-416.

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基于结构方程模型的武器装备体系涌现性度量模型

Emergence Measurement Model of Armament Systems Based on SEM

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