悬浮式深水炸弹综合防御鱼雷作战仿真系统确认方法

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2020.12.018

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为解决悬浮式深水炸弹综合防御鱼雷作战仿真评估确认问题，建立舰艇生存概率的数学模型，根据仿真系统输出的拦截概率和规避概率样本数据，结合模型计算得到生存概率的样本值。针对生存概率样本的高维、海量等特性，提出将多重假设检验应用于作战仿真系统确认的思路，建立评估多重假设检验功效的Power模型以及计算生存概率样本p-值的p-value模型，给出模型中关键指标的求解步骤。根据p-value模型求解得到该仿真系统的各项重要评估指标值，对系统进行评估确认。研究结果表明，多重假设检验对仿真系统确认更严格，并且在控制第一类错误方面明显优于传统假设检验。

关键词: 悬浮式深水炸弹, 综合防御, 鱼雷作战, 仿真系统, 生存概率, 多重假设检验

Abstract: A mathematic model of survival probability of navel ships is established for integrated anti-torpedo simulation evaluation and confirmation of suspended depth charge. The sample values of survival probability are calculated from the sample data of interception probability output of simulation system. In view of the characteristics of high dimension and large number of survival probability samples，an idea of applying multiple hypothesis test to simulation system validation is proposed. A power model for evaluating test efficacy and a model for calculating p-value of survival probability samples are established，and the steps to solve the key indicators in the model are given. The important evaluation index values of the simulation system were obtained，and the system was evaluated and confirmed. Research results show that the multiple hypothesis test is more strict for the confirmation of simulation system，and it is better than traditional hypothesis test in controlling the first kind of errors.

Key words: suspendeddepthcharge, integrateddefense, torpedocombat, simulationsystem, survivalprobability, multiplehypothesistest

中图分类号:

E925.25

孙慧玲，胡伟文，宋业新，张磊潇，刘彩霞. 悬浮式深水炸弹综合防御鱼雷作战仿真系统确认方法[J]. 兵工学报, 2020, 41(12): 2523-2529.

SUN Huiling， HU Weiwen， SONG Yexin， ZHANG Leixiao， LIU Caixia. Accreditation Method for Integrated Anti-torpedo Combat Simulation System of Suspended Depth Charge[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2020, 41(12): 2523-2529.

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第41卷第12期2020 年12月
兵工学报ACTA ARMAMENTARII
Vol.41No.12Dec.2020

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[2]	张磊潇，胡伟文，孙慧玲. 舰艇综合防御鱼雷的作战决策及其关联分析[J]. 兵工学报, 2020, 41(5): 967-974.
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