随机组合约束下的联合火力打击弹药需求预测模型

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2019.08.022

兵工学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (8): 1716-1724.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2019.08.022

随机组合约束下的联合火力打击弹药需求预测模型

薛辉^1,2，王源³，张天鹏¹，刘铁林¹

（1.陆军工程大学石家庄校区装备指挥与管理系，河北石家庄 050003； 2.空军石家庄飞行学院，河北石家庄 050071；3.国防大学联合作战学院联合参谋系, 河北石家庄 050084）

收稿日期:2018-10-28 修回日期:2018-10-28 上线日期:2019-10-15
通讯作者: 刘铁林（1971—），男，教授，博士生导师 E-mail:sfep2001@sina.com
作者简介:薛辉（1987—），男，博士研究生。E-mail: 847057728@qq.com

Demand Forecasting Model for Joint Fire Strike Ammunition under Stochastic Combination Constraints

XUE Hui^1,2， WANG Yuan³， ZHANG Tianpeng¹， LIU Tielin¹

(1.Department of Equipment Command and Management, Shijiazhuang Campus, Army Engineering University, Shijiazhuang 050003, Hebei, China; 2.Shijiazhuang Flying College of the PLA Air Force, Shijiazhuang 050071, Hebei, China; 3.Department of Joint staff, Joint Operations College, National Defense University, Shijiazhuang 050084, Hebei, China)

Received:2018-10-28 Revised:2018-10-28 Online:2019-10-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对联合火力打击背景下弹药需求预测难的问题，基于武器装备对抗的损失交换比确定不同装备打击不同目标的有效战斗力指数，将有效战斗力指数大小作为衡量敌方目标对我方装备威胁度高低的评判标准，为弹药需求预测提供基本依据。按照对敌最大毁伤原则，建立以最大综合战斗力指数为目标函数的联合火力打击弹药需求预测模型。根据弹药需求量的影响因素设定多种约束条件，结合作战实际及战场态势对约束条件进行随机组合，并运用智能优化算法求解模型。结果表明：该方法合理有效、可操作性强，符合联合火力打击特点，实现了装备-弹药-目标最优编组模式下的弹药需求预测，为未来高技术战争的弹药需求预测开拓了新思路。

关键词: 联合火力打击, 弹药需求, 战斗力指数, 损失交换比, 组合约束, 智能优化算法

Abstract: For the ammunition demand forecast under joint firepower strike, the effective combat effectiveness indexes of different equipment against different targets are determined based on the loss-exchange ratio of weapon-equipment confrontation. The effective combat effectiveness index is taken as a criterion to evaluate the threat of enemy targets to friend equipment, and provide an essential basis for ammunition demand forecasting. According to the principle of maximum damage to enemy, an joint firepower strike ammunition demand forecasting model with the maximum comprehensive combat effectiveness index as the objective function is established. A variety of constraints are set according to the influencing factors of ammunition demand, the constraints are randomly combined according to the actual combat situation, and the intelligent optimization algorithm is used to solve the model. The result shows that the proposed method is reasonable, effective and operable, and represents the characteristics of joint firepower strike. The demand forecasting of joint fire strike ammunition under the optimal equipment-ammunition-target formation mode is realized. Key

Key words: jointfirestrike, ammunitiondemand, combateffectivenessindex, loss-exchangerate, combinationconstraint, intelligentoptimizationalgorithm

中图分类号:

E835.8

薛辉，王源，张天鹏，刘铁林. 随机组合约束下的联合火力打击弹药需求预测模型[J]. 兵工学报, 2019, 40(8): 1716-1724.

XUE Hui， WANG Yuan， ZHANG Tianpeng， LIU Tielin. Demand Forecasting Model for Joint Fire Strike Ammunition under Stochastic Combination Constraints[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2019, 40(8): 1716-1724.

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随机组合约束下的联合火力打击弹药需求预测模型

Demand Forecasting Model for Joint Fire Strike Ammunition under Stochastic Combination Constraints

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