基于双系统理论的海上舰艇编队作战指挥有限理性决策模式

doi:10.12382/bgxb.2024.0384

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

作战指挥决策是联合作战活动的核心内容,是作战活动成功与否的关键。为了从认知心理学角度破解海上编队作战指挥决策能力弱的难题,在系统分析海上编队作战指挥决策问题的基础上,基于决策双系统理论对海上编队作战指挥有限理性决策进行科学映射,构建海上编队作战指挥有限理性决策函数模型,划分海上编队作战指挥有限理性决策类型,识别海上编队作战指挥有限理性决策认知偏差,提出海上编队作战指挥智能混合决策框架,形成海上编队作战指挥有限理性决策能力增强策略。研究结果表明,新框架具有较好的科学性、有效性和智能性,可有效提升指挥员的作战指挥决策能力,为开展下一代辅助决策支持系统的研制提供有力的理论和技术支撑。

关键词: 舰艇编队, 有限理性, 作战指挥决策, 决策双系统理论, 认知偏差

Abstract:

Operational command decision-making is the core content of joint combat activities and the key to the success of joint combat action. The paper aims to fundamentally solve the problem about “weak command and decision-making ability of combined formation” from the perspective of cognitive psychology. Based on the systematic analysis of formation operational command decision-making, the bounded rationality decision-making is scientifically mapped from the perspective of dual-process theory. A function model of bounded rationality decision-making is constructed, the types of bounded rationality decision-making are divided, and the cognitive deviation of bounded rationality decision-making is identified. An intelligent hybrid decision-making framework is proposed for warship formation operational command. The strategy of enhancing the bounded rationality decision-making ability of formation operational command is formed. The results show that the research framework is scientific, effective and intelligent, and can greatly improve the commander’s operational decision-making ability. It provides strong theoretical and technical support for the development of the next generation auxiliary decision support system.

Key words: warship formation, bounded rationality, operational command decision-making, dual-process theory, cognitive bias

中图分类号:

TP391.9

聂俊峰, 陈行军, 孙东普. 基于双系统理论的海上舰艇编队作战指挥有限理性决策模式[J]. 兵工学报, 2025, 46(5): 240384-.

NIE Junfeng, CHEN Xingjun, SUN Dongpu. Bounded Rationality Decision-making Mode of Warship Formation Operational Command Based on Dual-process Theory[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2025, 46(5): 240384-.

图/表 6

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决策类型	C		D	F
决策类型	问题不确定性程度	时间紧迫程度	D	F
灵感型决策	非常高	非常高	弱	强
调整型决策	高	非常高	强	强
借鉴型决策	较高	高	强	弱
复制型决策	较弱	较弱	强	弱

决策类型	C		D	F
决策类型	问题不确定性程度	时间紧迫程度	D	F
灵感型决策	非常高	非常高	弱	强
调整型决策	高	非常高	强	强
借鉴型决策	较高	高	强	弱
复制型决策	较弱	较弱	强	弱

决策能力增强机制	对应决策类型	具体描述	主导系统	决策目标
机制1	灵感型决策	模拟指挥员采用直觉推理的方式生成创造性解决方案的过程,并通过头脑推演对方案进行可行性评估,若评估结果不理想则选择其他方案	系统1	满意
机制2	调整型决策	模拟指挥员采用案例推理的方式检索出作战方案并进行适应性改进的过程,并通过头脑推演对方案进行可行性评估,若评估结果不理想则选择其他方案	系统1	满意
机制3	借鉴型决策	模拟指挥员采用案例推理的方式检索出作战方案并进行适应性改进的过程,并通过头脑推演对方案进行可行性评估,若评估结果不理想则采用规则推理再次进行方案优化	系统1	满意
机制4	复制型决策	模拟指挥员充分利用案例推理和规则推理的方式生成方案预案的过程,并通过头脑推演对方案进行可行性评估,反复完善形成最终方案	系统1+系统2	最优

决策能力增强机制	对应决策类型	具体描述	主导系统	决策目标
机制1	灵感型决策	模拟指挥员采用直觉推理的方式生成创造性解决方案的过程,并通过头脑推演对方案进行可行性评估,若评估结果不理想则选择其他方案	系统1	满意
机制2	调整型决策	模拟指挥员采用案例推理的方式检索出作战方案并进行适应性改进的过程,并通过头脑推演对方案进行可行性评估,若评估结果不理想则选择其他方案	系统1	满意
机制3	借鉴型决策	模拟指挥员采用案例推理的方式检索出作战方案并进行适应性改进的过程,并通过头脑推演对方案进行可行性评估,若评估结果不理想则采用规则推理再次进行方案优化	系统1	满意
机制4	复制型决策	模拟指挥员充分利用案例推理和规则推理的方式生成方案预案的过程,并通过头脑推演对方案进行可行性评估,反复完善形成最终方案	系统1+系统2	最优

任务阶段	情景描述	决策类型	偏差类型	增强机制
CT₁	进行战前预先筹划,生成作战计划	复制型决策	反应不足偏差、安于现状偏差	机制4
CT₂	对区域内不同范围空中来袭目标实施搜索、监视,实时获取目标情报信息	借鉴型决策	框架偏差	机制3
CT₃	在远程拦截区对空中来袭目标进行截击	调整型决策	锚定效应偏差、过分自信偏差	机制2
CT₄	空中来袭目标突破远程防空区后,即转入区域拦截	调整型决策	锚定效应偏差、过分自信偏差	机制2
CT₅	当区域防空群拦截失败后,空中来袭目标飞向编队近程防御圈,组织近程防空反导	调整型决策	锚定效应偏差、过分自信偏差	机制2
CT₆	末端防御的目标主要是突破远中近程防御圈的敌空袭兵力	灵感型决策	易得性直觉偏差	机制1
CT₇	将打击结果实时反馈至主动辅助决策节点,有序组织打击效果评估和作战能力恢复	借鉴型决策	框架偏差	机制3