基于演化博弈的反-反无人机攻防策略演化与“防御悖论”分析

刘正堂; 李博伦; 李蒙

doi:10.12382/bgxb.2026.0467

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基于演化博弈的反-反无人机攻防策略演化与“防御悖论”分析

更新时间：2026-08-25

- 基于演化博弈的反-反无人机攻防策略演化与“防御悖论”分析
- Evolutionary Game Analysis of Counter-Counter-UAS Offensive-Defensive Strategy Evolution and the "Defense Paradox"
- 兵工学报 2026年
- 作者机构：
  
  电磁空间安全试验评估全国重点实验室, 河南洛阳471000
- 作者简介：
  
  邮箱：tanlu6677@126.com
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.12382/bgxb.2026.0467
  中图分类号： E844
- 收稿：2026-05-19，
  
  修回：2026-07-09，
  
  录用：2026-07-16，
- 稿件说明：
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刘正堂, 李博伦, 李蒙. 基于演化博弈的反-反无人机攻防策略演化与“防御悖论”分析[J/OL]. 兵工学报, 2026.

LIU Zhengtang, LI Bolun, LI Meng. Evolutionary Game Analysis of Counter-Counter-UAS Offensive-Defensive Strategy Evolution and the "Defense Paradox"[J/OL]. Acta Armamentarii, 2026.
刘正堂, 李博伦, 李蒙. 基于演化博弈的反-反无人机攻防策略演化与“防御悖论”分析[J/OL]. 兵工学报, 2026. DOI： 10.12382/bgxb.2026.0467.

LIU Zhengtang, LI Bolun, LI Meng. Evolutionary Game Analysis of Counter-Counter-UAS Offensive-Defensive Strategy Evolution and the "Defense Paradox"[J/OL]. Acta Armamentarii, 2026. DOI： 10.12382/bgxb.2026.0467.

摘要

反-反无人机（Counter-Counter-UAS

C-CUAS）作战中，攻击方如何系统性压制敌方反无人机体系是亟待研究的理论问题。现有研究集中于反无人机防御技术，缺乏从攻防博弈视角分析成本不对称时攻防策略演化的定量模型。本文构建以防御成本比为核心参数的C-CUAS攻防演化博弈模型，将攻击方策略抽象为“诱饵→精确打击，饱和消耗”，防御方策略抽象为“开机拦截，关机隐蔽”，推导复制动态方程并求解演化稳定策略。数学证明，当防御成本与攻击成本的比值超过某一临界值后，防御方从“开机拦截”转向“关机隐蔽”，即陷入“防御悖论”。仿真结果表明该临界比值约为1至5，俄乌战场（成本比约10至100）和中东战场（成本比约200至640）防御方已陷入防御悖论区，模型预测与三大战场实战数据吻合。在此基础上，进一步提出了低成本防御技术的三维评估框架，提出了“分层弹性防御”构想，基于C-CUAS攻防演化博弈模型，给出了面向多种场景的C-CUAS体系构建原则。本文为C-CUAS作战理论提供了定量分析框架和装备发展决策依据。

Abstract

In Counter-Counter-UAS (C-CUAS) operations

how the attacking side systematically suppresses the enemy counter-UAV system is an urgent theoretical problem. Existing research focuses on counter-UAV defensive technologies

lacking quantitative models that analyze the evolution of offensive and defensive strategies under cost asymmetry from a game-theoretic perspective. This paper constructs an offensive-defensive evolutionary game model for C-CUAS with the defense-cost ratio as the core parameter

abstracting the confrontation as a non-symmetric evolutionary game between the attacker's "decoy-precision strike

saturation consumption" and the defender's "activate-interception

shut-down-concealment" strategies. The replicator dynamics equations are derived and the evolutionary stable strategies (ESS) are solved. Mathematically

it is proved that when the defense-cost ratio exceeds the critical value

the defender shifts from "activate-interception" to "shut-down-concealment"

i.e.

falls into the "defense paradox". The critical condition and influencing factors are given. Numerical simulations reveal a four-stage structure: defense-advantage zone

bistable transition zone

defense-paradox zone

and extreme-asymmetry zone. The model predictions are validated against empirical data from the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

the Russia-Ukraine conflict

and the Middle East theater

showing consistency in direction. The introduction of directed-energy weapons fundamentally reshapes the game structure by reducing the defense-cost ratio to near zero

thereby breaking the defense paradox. Finally

a unified evaluation framework for low-cost defense technologies and a "layered resilient defense" architecture are proposed.

关键词

Keywords

references

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