基于相对熵继承因子的小子样成败型系统可靠性评估

冯蕴雯; 梁佳文; 郭世玺; 陈先民; 薛小锋

doi:10.12382/bgxb.2025.1067

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基于相对熵继承因子的小子样成败型系统可靠性评估

更新时间：2026-04-30

- 基于相对熵继承因子的小子样成败型系统可靠性评估
- Reliability Evaluation of Small-sample Binary Systems Based on Relative Entropy Inheritance Factor
- 兵工学报 2026年
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 西北工业大学航空学院,陕西,西安,710072
  2. 飞行棋基础布局全国重点实验室
  3. ,陕西,西安,710072
  4. 西安机电信息技术研究所,陕西,西安,710065
  5. 中国飞机强度研究所,陕西,西安,710065
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金委民航联合基金重点项目（U2570209）
- DOI：10.12382/bgxb.2025.1067
  中图分类号： TJ301
- 收稿：2025-12-03，
  
  网络首发：2026-04-30，
- 稿件说明：
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冯蕴雯，梁佳文，郭世玺，等. 基于相对熵继承因子的小子样成败型系统可靠性评估[J/OL]. 兵工学报, 2026(2026-04-30). https://doi.org/10.12382/bgxb.2025.1067.

FENG Y W, LIANG J W, GUO S X, et al. Reliability evaluation of small-sample binary systems based on relative entropy inheritance factor[J/OL]. Acta Armamentarii, 2026(2026-04-30). https://doi.org/10.12382/bgxb.2025.1067. (in Chinese)
冯蕴雯，梁佳文，郭世玺，等. 基于相对熵继承因子的小子样成败型系统可靠性评估[J/OL]. 兵工学报, 2026(2026-04-30). https://doi.org/10.12382/bgxb.2025.1067. DOI：

FENG Y W, LIANG J W, GUO S X, et al. Reliability evaluation of small-sample binary systems based on relative entropy inheritance factor[J/OL]. Acta Armamentarii, 2026(2026-04-30). https://doi.org/10.12382/bgxb.2025.1067. (in Chinese) DOI：

摘要

在成败型系统小子样可靠性评估问题中，混合Beta先验Bayes法的继承因子取值依赖于专家经验与主观判断，影响了先验分布与可靠性评估结果的准确性。提出一种相对熵继承因子定量计算方法。通过分析先验样本和试验样本的概率分布差异与相似性边界条件，提出相对熵-卡方拟合继承因子(Relative Entropy-Chi-Squarefitting Inheritance Factor

RE-CSIF)模型，实现了相对熵继承因子的定量计算。为了提升RE-CSIF模型的输入数据质量，构建包含数据清洗、数据折算、质量评价和数据融合的四阶段试验数据预处理框架，解决了试验数据质量评估问题。使用蒙特卡洛法验证所提方法的有效性，验证结果表明：相较于传统继承因子计算方法，在先验信息与实际试验样本可靠度水平十分接近时，RE-CSIF模型的可靠度估计精度提高17%，覆盖率置信度接近水平提高41%；在可靠度水平较为接近时，RE-CSIF模型的可靠度估计精度提高5.4%，覆盖率置信度接近水平提高7.9%。以某型引信系统可靠性试验数据为例进行方法应用分析，验证了所提方法的适用性。

Abstract

In the reliability evaluation of small-sample binary system

the inheritance factor in the hybrid Beta prior Bayesian method is determined by expert experience and subjective judgment

whichaffectsthe accuracy of the prior distribution and reliability evaluation results. A quantitative calculation method for the relative entropy inheritance factor is proposed.Arelativeentropy-chi-squarefittinginheritancefactor (RE-CSIF)modelis proposedby analyzing the probability distribution differences and similarity boundary conditionsofprior samples and test samples

which enables the quantitative calculation of relative entropy inheritance factor.To improve the input data quality of the RE-CSIFmodel

a four-stage test data preprocessing framework including data cleaning

data conversion

quality evaluation and data fusion is constructed to solve the problem of test data quality assessment.The effectiveness of the proposed methodisverified through Monte Carlo simulation. Compared with traditional inheritance factor calculation methods

the RE-CSIFMethod improvesthe accuracy of reliability estimationby 17% and the coverage confidence level by 41%when the reliability levels of prior information and actual test samples are highly consistent;andwhen the reliability levels are relatively close

itimprovesthe accuracy of reliability estimation 5.4% and the coverage confidence level by 7.9%. The applicability of the proposed method is verified by taking the reliability test data of a fuze system as an example.

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