基于三支决策的联合防空作战方案效能评估方法

韩帅; 汤长俊; 傅理夫; 李娟娟; 鞠彦兵; 王寒; 王菁; 董沛武

doi:10.12382/bgxb.2025.0825

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基于三支决策的联合防空作战方案效能评估方法

更新时间：2026-06-16

- 基于三支决策的联合防空作战方案效能评估方法
- Effectiveness Evaluation Approach of Joint Air Defense Operational Schemes Based on Three-way Decision
- 兵工学报 2026年47卷第5期页码：250825
- 作者机构：
  
  晋西工业集团有限责任公司，山西太原 030027
  中国兵器科学研究院，北京 100089
  北京理工大学管理学院，北京 100081
  北京理工大学（珠海）社会科学域，广东珠海 519088
- 作者简介：
  
  通信作者邮箱：juyb@bit.edu.cn
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金重点项目(72431003;72501193)
- DOI：10.12382/bgxb.2025.0825
  中图分类号： E91
- 收稿：2025-09-08，
  
  网络首发：2026-02-13，
  
  纸质出版：2026-05
- 稿件说明：
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韩帅, 汤长俊, 傅理夫, 等. 基于三支决策的联合防空作战方案效能评估方法[J]. 兵工学报, 2026,47(5):250825.

HAN Shuai, TANG Changjun, FU Lifu, et al. Effectiveness Evaluation Approach of Joint Air Defense Operational Schemes Based on Three-way Decision[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2026, 47(5): 250825.
韩帅, 汤长俊, 傅理夫, 等. 基于三支决策的联合防空作战方案效能评估方法[J]. 兵工学报, 2026,47(5):250825. DOI： 10.12382/bgxb.2025.0825.

HAN Shuai, TANG Changjun, FU Lifu, et al. Effectiveness Evaluation Approach of Joint Air Defense Operational Schemes Based on Three-way Decision[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2026, 47(5): 250825. DOI： 10.12382/bgxb.2025.0825.

摘要

联合防空作战作为现代战争体系中的关键环节，其方案评估面临高强度环境下多维信息融合与科学决策的双重挑战。围绕联合防空作战方案评估需求，构建了覆盖打击效能、装备保障效能、信息保障效能、预警效能和指挥效能的评估指标体系，设置5项指标和17项子指标。提出了改进的指标客观权重赋权法，结合网络层次分析法确定了评价指标的综合权重。通过获取基于指标和方案的相对损失函数和条件概率，建立了基于三种行动策略的联合防空作战方案效能分类及方案排序模型。提出的模型能够有效处理评估信息的不确定性与模糊性问题，提升决策判别力和方案优选合理性。实例验证表明，该方法具有较强的实用性与推广价值。

Abstract

As a critical component of modern warfare system，the joint air defense operations face the dual challenges of multi-dimensional information integration and scientific decision-making under high-intensity conditions. To meet the requirements for evaluating the joint air defense operation scheme，a comprehensive evaluation index system，which covers five primary dimensions of strike effectiveness，equipment support effectiveness，information support effectiveness，early warning capability and command effectiveness，is constructed. It comprises five first-level indicators and seventeen quantifiable second-level indicators. The integrated weights of these indicators are determined using an improved criteria importance through intercriteria correlation and analytic network process methods. Based on the relative loss functions and conditional probabilities derived from indicators and operational schemes，a classification and ranking model for operational scheme effectiveness is developed under a three-action strategy framework. The proposed model effectively addresses the uncertainty and fuzziness in the evaluation process，enhancing the decision-making discriminative power and the rationality of scheme optimization. The case verification shows the proposed method has strong applicability and potential for broader implementation.

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references

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