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王保华 , 裴益轩 , 霍勇谋 , 等 . 一种求解火箭防空武器毁歼概率的简便方法 [J ] . 兵工学报 , 2016 , 37 ( 4 ): 751 - 755 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2016.04.025 http://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2016.04.025 为了解决火箭防空武器对空中目标的毁伤能力计算问题，提出一种求解火箭防空武器毁歼概率的简便方法。在假设仅有火箭防空武器破片战斗部毁伤能力参数和射击精度参数的情况下，根据高炮预制破片弹对空中目标的毁伤机理，通过建立火箭弹破片对空中目标的毁伤能力模型，并把火箭弹破片杀伤弹幕尺寸转化为目标在高低和方位方向的附加尺寸，计算对目标的命中概率，建立火箭防空武器对空中目标的毁歼概率模型。以某火箭防空武器为例，计算该武器对空中目标的毁歼概率，验证该方法的可行性。

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殷小静 , 胡晓峰 , 荣明 , 等 . 体系贡献率评估方法研究综述与展望 [J ] . 系统仿真学报 , 2019 , 31 ( 6 ): 1027 - 1038 . DOI: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.19-0240 http://doi.org/10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.19-0240 战争就是交战双方作战体系之间的对抗。体系贡献率评估是体系建设和分析重点关注的问题,是对作战要素在作战体系中所发挥作用的一种度量。在梳理体系贡献率的基本概念和分类的基础上,剖析了其内涵和性质。归纳总结了现有体系贡献率评估方法并分析了研究的技术难点,提出了体系贡献率的未来研究方向,为评估工作提供参考。

YIN X J , HU X F , RONG M , et al . Review of evaluation methods of contribution rate to system of systems [J ] . Journal of System Simulation , 2019 , 31 ( 6 ): 1027 - 1038 . (in Chinese) DOI: 10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.19-0240 http://doi.org/10.16182/j.issn1004731x.joss.19-0240 The warfare is the encounter of system of systems (SoS). The evaluation on the contribution rate to SoS is of great importance to the development of operational SoS as a measure of the evaluating units&#x02019; contribution to SoS. In this paper t<em>he basic concept and classification of the contribution rate to operational SoS are elaborated</em>; <em>its connotation and nature are analyzed</em>; and <em>the current research status and the technical difficulties in this research field are summarized</em>. <em>The development trend is predicted</em>, which provides a useful reference for relative research.

ZHAO R D , SHI X M , WANG Q , et al . Bayesian inference for ammunition demand based on gompertz distribution [J ] . Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics , 2020 , 31 ( 3 ): 567 - 577 . DOI: 10.23919/JSEE.2020.000035 http://doi.org/10.23919/JSEE.2020.000035 Aiming at the problem that the consumption data of new ammunition is less and the demand is difficult to predict, combined with the law of ammunition consumption under different damage grades, a Bayesian inference method for ammunition demand based on Gompertz distribution is proposed. The Bayesian inference model based on Gompertz distribution is constructed, and the system contribution degree is introduced to determine the weight of the multi-source information. In the case where the prior distribution is known and the distribution of the field data is unknown, the consistency test is performed on the prior information, and the consistency test problem is transformed into the goodness of the fit test problem. Then the Bayesian inference is solved by the Markov chain-Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, and the ammunition demand under different damage grades is gained. The example verifies the accuracy of this method and solves the problem of ammunition demand prediction in the case of insufficient samples.

陈立新 , 徐仲祥 , 王从容 , 等 . 面向相互比较的装备体系建设贡献率评估 [J ] . 兵工学报 , 2022 , 43 ( 5 ): 1208 - 1214 . DOI: 10.12382/bgxb.2021.0052 http://doi.org/10.12382/bgxb.2021.0052 为有效解决当前装备体系贡献率评估结果难以相互比较的难题，从装备体系建设与设计视角，选取装备额定条件下完成体系规定任务率作为装备体系贡献率的度量指标，将装备体系贡献率评估转化为装备体系设计中的装备完成体系规定任务率优化分配。运用求解优化模型的拉格朗日乘数法，得出所求条件极值的可能极值点，并作为装备体系内装备完成体系规定任务率的优化分配结果。针对装备体系内装备之间并联、串联和混联3种类型的关联协作关系，应用概率论和拉格朗日乘数法，分别构建和求解这3种类型的装备体系完成任务率函数和建设贡献率评估模型，实现了装备体系建设贡献率的统一度量和对比分析。算例结果验证了评估模型的有效性和可行性。

CHEN L X , XU Z X , WANG C R , et al . Intercomparison-oriented evaluation of equipment’s contribution rate to armament system of systems construction [J ] . Acta Armamentarii , 2022 , 43 ( 5 ): 1208 - 1214 . (in Chinese)

赵汝东 , 史宪铭 , 苏小波 , 等 . 基于Bayesian体系融合的新型弹药消耗预计方法 [J ] . 兵器装备工程学报 , 2020 , 41 ( 2 ): 75 - 80 .

ZHAO R D , SHI X M , SU X B , et al . New ammunition consumption prediction method based on bayesian system fusion [J ] . Journal of Ordnance Equipment Engineering , 2020 , 41 ( 2 ): 75 - 80 . (in Chinese)

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