海军工程大学, 湖北 武汉 430033
*E-mail:wul.nue@gmail.com
收稿:2022-01-04,
网络出版:2023-07-25,
纸质出版:2023-04-28
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吴玲, 王丕琨, 卢发兴. 基于预定毁伤概率的悬浮式深弹使用方法[J]. 兵工学报, 2023,44(4):1217-1224.
Ling WU, Pikun WANG, Faxing LU. Applications of Hovering Deep Bombs Based on Predetermined Probability[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2023, 44(4): 1217-1224.
吴玲, 王丕琨, 卢发兴. 基于预定毁伤概率的悬浮式深弹使用方法[J]. 兵工学报, 2023,44(4):1217-1224. DOI: 10.12382/bgxb.2022.0005.
Ling WU, Pikun WANG, Faxing LU. Applications of Hovering Deep Bombs Based on Predetermined Probability[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2023, 44(4): 1217-1224. DOI: 10.12382/bgxb.2022.0005.
利用悬浮式深弹拦截来袭鱼雷时
要在鱼雷可能来袭的航路上布设多枚深弹组成拦截线
以提升对鱼雷的毁伤概率。传统布设方法基于对鱼雷探测误差和深弹毁伤半径
确定目标可能通过区间并均匀配置深弹
没有合理地基于深弹射击误差和预定毁伤概率
确定深弹布设数量和瞄准点。基于预定概率区域射击方法以毁伤概率为预定指标
同时考虑观测误差和射击误差的最优拦截模型;通过构建中间函数求取理论最优毁伤概率
再根据最优毁伤概率
将预定毁伤概率作为输入
迭代求解布设深弹数量。通过分析拦截策略确定深弹布设瞄准点。仿真结果表明:该方法可以基于预定毁伤概率快速得到最优射弹数和瞄准点
验证毁伤概率与预定毁伤概率的误差小于1%
实现了水下拦截线的精确布设。
When using hovering deep bombs to intercept incoming torpedoes
multiple deep bombs are deployed along the possible torpedo path to form an interceptor line
thus increasing the probability of damaging the torpedo. The traditional deployment method is based on the detection error of the torpedo and the radius of destruction of the deep shells. It determines the probable passage interval of the target and distributes the deep shells evenly. However
the traditional method does not take into account the firing error of the deep ammunition or allow for a reasonable number of deep ammunition deployments and aiming points based on a predetermined damage probability. To address this
an optimal interception model is constructed by taking the destruction probability as the predetermined index
considering both observation error and firing error. By constructing an intermediate function
the theoretical optimal damage probability is obtained
and the predetermined damage probability is used as input for iteratively solving the number of deep bombs to be deployed based on the optimal damage probability. Finally
the targeting point of deep bomb deployment is determined by analyzing the interception strategy. Simulation calculations show that this method can quickly obtain the optimal number of projectiles and aiming points based on the predetermined firing probability. The error between the verified damage probability and the predetermined damage probability of the scheme is less than 1%
achieving the accurate deployment of the underwater interception line.
徐梁 , 谢国新 , 赵志军 . 悬浮式深弹拦截鱼雷方法研究 [J ] . 水雷战与舰船防护 , 2010 , 18 ( 4 ): 46 - 49 .
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武志东 , 张孝芳 , 于雪泳 . 尾流自导鱼雷攻击低速水面目标模型研究 [J ] . 火力与指挥控制 , 2022 , 47 ( 9 ): 85 - 89 .
WU Z D , ZHANG X F , YU X Y . Study on the model of tail current self-guided torpedo attacking low-speed surface targets [J ] . Firepower and Command and Control , 2022 , 47 ( 9 ): 85 - 89 . (in Chinese)
孙慧玲 , 胡伟文 , 宋业新 , 等 . 悬浮式深水炸弹综合防御鱼雷作战仿真系统确认方法 [J ] . 兵工学报 , 2020 , 41 ( 12 ): 2523 - 2529 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2020.12.018 http://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2020.12.018 为解决悬浮式深水炸弹综合防御鱼雷作战仿真评估确认问题,建立舰艇生存概率的数学模型,根据仿真系统输出的拦截概率和规避概率样本数据,结合模型计算得到生存概率的样本值。针对生存概率样本的高维、海量等特性,提出将多重假设检验应用于作战仿真系统确认的思路,建立评估多重假设检验功效的Power模型以及计算生存概率样本p-值的p-value模型,给出模型中关键指标的求解步骤。根据p-value模型求解得到该仿真系统的各项重要评估指标值,对系统进行评估确认。研究结果表明,多重假设检验对仿真系统确认更严格,并且在控制第一类错误方面明显优于传统假设检验。
SUN H L , HU W W , SONG Y X , et al. Accreditation method for integrated anti-torpedo combat simulation system of suspended depth charge [J ] . Acta Armamentarii , 2020 , 41 ( 12 ): 2523 - 2529 . (in Chinese) DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2020.12.018 http://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2020.12.018 A mathematic model of survival probability of navel ships is established for integrated anti-torpedo simulation evaluation and confirmation of suspended depth charge. The sample values of survival probability are calculated from the sample data of interception probability output of simulation system. In view of the characteristics of high dimension and large number of survival probability samples,an idea of applying multiple hypothesis test to simulation system validation is proposed. A power model for evaluating test efficacy and a model for calculating p-value of survival probability samples are established,and the steps to solve the key indicators in the model are given. The important evaluation index values of the simulation system were obtained,and the system was evaluated and confirmed. Research results show that the multiple hypothesis test is more strict for the confirmation of simulation system,and it is better than traditional hypothesis test in controlling the first kind of errors.
任磊 , 贾跃 , 李文哲 . 舰载软硬防雷武器综合对抗智能鱼雷方案研究 [J ] . 兵工学报 , 2015 , 36 ( 12 ): 2336 - 2341 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2015.12.017 http://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2015.12.017 针对舰艇对抗智能声自导鱼雷的问题,提出了综合使用两型软硬防雷武器即悬浮式声诱饵和悬浮式深弹的对抗方法,确定了二者的发射顺序,给出了两种可行的布放方案;采用统计模拟的方法,对两种布放方案的对抗效果进行了仿真,通过分析仿真结果,对舰载软硬防雷武器对抗智能声自导鱼雷的方案进行了优选;通过改进悬浮式声诱饵与悬浮式深弹阵之间的布放间隔,有效提高了舰艇的生存概率,为提高软硬防雷武器综合使用的作战能力提供了决策依据。
REN L , JIA Y , LI W Z . Research on comprehensive scheme of shipboard hard and soft torpedo defense weapons against intelligent torpedoes [J ] . Acta Armamentarii , 2015 , 36 ( 12 ): 2336 - 2341 . (in Chinese) DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2015.12.017 http://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2015.12.017 A countermeasure method of hard and soft torpedo defense weapons, i.e., floating acoustic decoy and suspended depth charge, against acoustic homing torpedoes is proposed. The launching sequence is determined, and two possible laying schemes are presented. The countermeasure effects of the two schemes are simulated by using statistical simulation method. An optimal scheme to use the shipboard hard and soft torpedo defense weapons against intelligent acoustic homing torpedoes is chosen through analysis. The survival probability of ship is effectively improved by improving the laying interval between floating acoustic decoy and suspended depth charge.
赵向涛 , 孙续文 , 林宗祥 . 航向估计在对抗尾流自导鱼雷中的应用研究 [J ] . 鱼雷技术 , 2009 , 17 ( 1 ): 53 - 55 .
ZHAO X T , SUN X W , LIN Z X . A study on the application of heading estimation in countering wake self-guided torpedoes [J ] . Torpedo Technology , 2009 , 17 ( 1 ): 53 - 55 . (in Chinese)
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张磊潇 , 胡伟文 , 孙慧玲 . 深弹拦截与机动规避综合防御鱼雷作战仿真及效能分析 [J ] . 指挥控制与仿真 , 2019 , 41 ( 5 ): 54 - 59 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-3819.2019.05.012 http://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1673-3819.2019.05.012 悬浮式深弹作为一种新型鱼雷对抗器材,其与机动规避相结合综合防御声自导鱼雷,是舰艇水下防御作战的一种新样式。为了给装备训练分析及战法研讨提供参考,建立了舰艇机动规避,相遇三角形和鱼雷追踪弹道模型,采用蒙特卡洛方法进行作战仿真,得到规避概率、拦截概率和生存概率等3个作战效能指标的估计值。从生存概率变化的区域特性、单调特性、梯度特性和相应的重点防区等4个角度进行分析,结果表明:舰艇采用深弹拦截与机动规避的综合防御手段,可以提高单一战术手段的防御效能,且其生存概率与鱼雷报警位置存在较大相关性,其可以优选舰艇规避路线、确定重点防区,针对性地开展防御作战训练,以进一步提高舰艇生存概率。
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陈颜辉 , 赵雷 . 多手段综合防御鱼雷指控系统架构与实现 [J ] . 弹道学报 , 2022 , 34 ( 1 ): 105 - 110 . DOI: 10.12115/j.issn.1004-499X(2022)01-016 http://doi.org/10.12115/j.issn.1004-499X(2022)01-016 对潜射鱼雷的综合防御是当前水面舰艇构建防御鱼雷指控系统的核心内容。首先,在基本概念层面区分了纵向综合与横向综合的不同侧重,从主要特征角度归纳了防御对象多样性与防御手段多样性的基本内涵,在防御过程方面明确应立足一次性防御理念展开决策部署,并强调态势生成问题是制约防御效能提升的主要瓶颈。其次,围绕综合防御态势生成过程中的识别与定位2个关键性问题,进一步分析了来袭鱼雷制导类型的识别原理与输出特点,探讨了实际弹道预测法和似然弹道预测法的实现方式及特征差异,从而形成了对综合防御鱼雷态势生成问题的完整表述。最后指出,综合防御鱼雷的目的可划分为主要对抗目的和辅助对抗目的,综合防御基本原则包括综合优先、效费比最佳、硬杀伤优先、威胁优先或信度优先等,综合防御火力分配可采取二级分配的方式,并围绕不同报警距离范围归纳了多手段综合防御鱼雷的关注重点及一般规律。研究表明,一套相对完整的水面舰艇防御鱼雷理论体系已初步形成,这对相关指控装备的研制和相应指挥能力的提升具有参考意义。
CHEN Y H , ZHAO L . Architecture and implementation of a multi-mode integrated defense torpedo accusation system [J ] . Journal of Ballistics , 2022 , 34 ( 1 ): 105 - 110 . (in Chinese)
张磊潇 , 胡伟文 , 孙慧玲 . 舰艇综合防御鱼雷的作战决策及其关联分析 [J ] . 兵工学报 , 2020 , 41 ( 5 ): 967 - 974 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2020.05.016 http://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2020.05.016 深弹拦截与机动规避综合防御声自导鱼雷是舰艇水下防御作战的一种新样式。对舰艇生存概率与战场态势展开关联分析,可为训练分析、战法研讨乃至作战决策提供精细化的参考。在该作战仿真及策略优化问题的研究过程中,形成了“深弹拦截+背转规避”与“舰艇机动+深弹拦截”两种作战策略。比较不同战场态势下的舰艇生存概率,粗略划分两种作战策略的适用区域,并分析了两种策略的综合防御效果;以梯度分析、弹性分析方法分别给出临界区域的数值计算示例,给出不同战场态势下的作战建议。研究结果表明,在不同战场态势下,舰艇应采取对应的较优作战策略,特别应加强对远距离、正横方向来袭鱼雷的预警探测能力。
ZHANG L X , HU W W , SUN H L . Combat decision and correlation analysis of warship integrated defense torpedo [J ] . Acta Armamentarii , 2020 , 41 ( 5 ): 967 - 974 . (in Chinese) DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2020.05.016 http://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2020.05.016 A new style of underwater warship defense is to integrally defend the acoustic self-guided torpedo with depth charge interception and maneuvering evasion. The correlation analysis for the survival probability of warship and the battlefield situation can provide elaborate reference for training analysis, discussion about tactics and even combat decision-making. In the research process of combat simulation and strategy optimization, two combat strategies of “depth charge interception + backward evasion” and “warship maneuvering + depth charge interception” are formed. The applicable regions of the two combat strategies are roughly divided, and the integral defense effects of the two strategies are analyzed by comparing the survival probabilities of warship under different battlefield situations. The numerical analysis examples of critical regions and the combat suggestions under different battlefield situations are given by using gradient analysis and elastic analysis methods, respectively. This study shows that a corresponding superior combat strategy should be adopted under different battlefield situations, especially, for early warning and detection of torpedo in long-distance and horizontal direction. Key
贾跃 , 宋保维 , 李文哲 . 火箭深弹拦截鱼雷理论与方法研究 [J ] . 系统工程理论与实践 , 2005 , 25 ( 4 ): 137 - 140 . DOI: 10.12011/1000-6788(2005)4-137 http://doi.org/10.12011/1000-6788(2005)4-137 为提高水面舰艇水下防御作战能力,根据目前火箭深弹武器系统现状以及水面舰艇拦截鱼雷基本参数的确定理论,首先确定拦截鱼雷的基本参数,然后提出火箭深弹拦截鱼雷的的基本方法,最后对探测系统和火箭深弹武器系统提出进一步改进建议,对武器装备的发展和新功能的开发研究,具有指导意义
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任磊 , 贾跃 , 宋佳平 , 等 . 考虑边界约束的悬浮式深弹布放模型优化及算法 [J ] . 指挥控制与仿真 , 2017 , 39 ( 4 ): 30 - 34 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-3819.2017.04.007 http://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1673-3819.2017.04.007 首先分析了软硬防雷武器综合使用存在声兼容问题,提出了边界约束条件下如何布放悬浮式深弹取得最大拦截概率的优化问题。针对拦截目标为“声自导”或“线导+声自导”鱼雷,分别建立了考虑边界约束的悬浮式深弹布放位置优化模型,根据“复合形”算法的特点对优化模型的目标函数和约束条件进行了优化,分析了该优化模型最优解的计算流程并进行了算例验证。结果表明:该布放位置优化模型及算法正确,可为软硬防雷武器综合使用时确定悬浮式深弹的布放位置提供技术支撑。
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