Predictive Modeling of Plate Deformation under Double blast waves

CHU Shanyong; LIU Yan; XU Zixi; LIU Moyan; HUANG Fenglei

doi:10.12382/bgxb.2025.0983

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Predictive Modeling of Plate Deformation under Double blast waves

更新时间：2026-03-09

- Predictive Modeling of Plate Deformation under Double blast waves
- Acta Armamentarii (2026)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 北京理工大学爆炸科学与安全防护全国重点实验室,北京,100081
  2. 北京理工大学重庆创新中心,重庆,401120
  3. 沈阳理工大学装备工程学,辽宁,沈阳,110158
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.12382/bgxb.2025.0983
  CLC： TJ410.1
- Received：04 November 2025，
  
  Online First：09 March 2026，
- 稿件说明：
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初善勇，刘彦，徐梓熙，等. 基于机器学习的双爆炸波耦合作用下靶板变形响应预测模型[J/OL]. 兵工学报, 2026(2026-03-09). https://doi.org/10.12382/bgxb.2025.0983.

CHU S Y, LIU Y, XU Z X, et al. Predictive modeling of plate deformation under double blast waves[J/OL]. Acta Armamentarii, 2026(2026-03-09). https://doi.org/10.12382/bgxb.2025.0983. (in Chinese)
初善勇，刘彦，徐梓熙，等. 基于机器学习的双爆炸波耦合作用下靶板变形响应预测模型[J/OL]. 兵工学报, 2026(2026-03-09). https://doi.org/10.12382/bgxb.2025.0983. DOI：

CHU S Y, LIU Y, XU Z X, et al. Predictive modeling of plate deformation under double blast waves[J/OL]. Acta Armamentarii, 2026(2026-03-09). https://doi.org/10.12382/bgxb.2025.0983. (in Chinese) DOI：

摘要

为获得双爆源耦合加载下靶板变形预测模型，基于双爆源耦合加载下靶板毁伤效应实验与数值仿真研究进行数据集的获取，结合机器学习构建耦合加载下靶板变形的预测模型。通过双装药协同起爆获得耦合冲击波，实验中改变装药间距调整双爆源载荷强度，以此获得不同载荷强度下靶板变形模式和塑性变形量，并采用有限元软件探究靶板的毁伤模式。基于实验和数值仿真数据，采用决策树回归、随机森林回归、XGBoost和梯度提升回归四种非线性预测模型对靶板变形量进行了回归分析，并通过融合遗传算法与粒子群优化算法优化了模型超参数，优化后的超参数被用于预测模型。通过准确性、鲁棒性、泛化能力和计算效率等方面多维度对比四种非线性预测模型，从而优选出靶板变形响应的最佳预测模型。研究结果表明，梯度提升回归模型在预测精度、鲁棒性和泛化能力等关键指标上表现最优，但计算效率略低于决策树模型。XGBoost模型在部分指标上表现出色，然而其高噪声敏感性限制了实际应用。随机森林回归模型呈现均衡性能，DTR模型虽计算效率最高，但其他关键指标表现不佳。可以认为梯度提升回归模型最适用于双爆源耦合加载下的靶板变形预测。

Abstract

To obtain a predictive modelfor plate deformation under double explosive loading coupling

a model was developed based on experimental and numerical studies of plate damage effects underdoubleexplosive loading coupling. Machine learning was employed to construct a predictive model for plate deformation. By synchronously detonatingdoublecharges

coupled shock waves were generated. The experimental setup involved adjusting the spacing between charges to modify the load intensity of thedoubleexplosions. This enabled the observation of different deformation patterns and plastic deformation amounts of the target plate under varying load intensities. Additionally

the finite element software was utilized to further investigate the damage modes of the plate.Based on the experimental and numerical simulation results

four nonlinear predictive models - Decision Tree Regression (DTR)

Random Forest Regression (RFR)

XGBoost(XGB)

and Gradient Boosting Regression (GBR) - were used to perform regression analysis on the plate deformation. The modelhyperparameterswere optimized using a PSO-GA hybrid optimization algorithm

and the optimized parameters were applied to the predictive model. Through multidimensional comparisons in terms of accuracy

robustness

generalization ability

and computational efficiency

the best predictive model for plate deformation response was selected. The research findings indicate that

despite the slightly lower computational efficiency of the GBR model compared to the DTR model in scenarios with certainnoise in the data

its excellent performance in error statistics

residual analysis

robustness

and generalization capabilities make it the most suitable for predicting plate deformation under dual explosive loading coupling.

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references

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