Research on Hit Probability and Ballistic Simulation System of Anti-UAV Weapon System based on Rotary-barrel Machine Gun

CAI Song; HE Binna; DONG Chao

doi:10.12382/bgxb.2025.0945

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

Research on Hit Probability and Ballistic Simulation System of Anti-UAV Weapon System based on Rotary-barrel Machine Gun

更新时间：2026-04-03

- Research on Hit Probability and Ballistic Simulation System of Anti-UAV Weapon System based on Rotary-barrel Machine Gun
- Acta Armamentarii (2026)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 重庆建设工业（集团）有限责任公司,重庆,401300
  2. 哈尔滨工业大学,黑龙江,哈尔滨,150001
  3. 中北大学机电工程学院,山西,太原,030051
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.12382/bgxb.2025.0945
  CLC： TJ25
- Received：22 October 2025，
  
  Online First：03 April 2026，
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
蔡崧，贺斌娜，董超. 转管机枪反无人机武器系统弹道仿真及命中概率计算[J/OL]. 兵工学报, 2026(2026-04-03). https://doi.org/10.12382/bgxb.2025.0945.

CAI S, HE B N, DONG C. Research on hit probability and ballistic simulation system of anti-uav weapon system based on rotary-barrel machine gun[J/OL]. Acta Armamentarii, 2026(2026-04-03). https://doi.org/10.12382/bgxb.2025.0945. (in Chinese)
蔡崧，贺斌娜，董超. 转管机枪反无人机武器系统弹道仿真及命中概率计算[J/OL]. 兵工学报, 2026(2026-04-03). https://doi.org/10.12382/bgxb.2025.0945. DOI：

CAI S, HE B N, DONG C. Research on hit probability and ballistic simulation system of anti-uav weapon system based on rotary-barrel machine gun[J/OL]. Acta Armamentarii, 2026(2026-04-03). https://doi.org/10.12382/bgxb.2025.0945. (in Chinese) DOI：

摘要

面对“低慢小”无人机及蜂群威胁，转管机枪凭借高射速、持续火力优势，成为核心末端防御装备。但传统命中概率模型忽视高射速下身管旋转产生的离心、科氏惯性力对弹丸初速的动态影响，导致预测偏差显著。通过对命中概率的关键影响因素进行系统分析，以离心、科氏惯性力为切入点，分解弹丸初速的轴向、向心分量，结合身管旋转切向速度推导初速修正公式，融入外弹道模型构建命中概率修正模型；基于QT框架开发仿真系统，支持参数配置、弹道3D可视化及多工况命中概率计算。仿真与实验结果表明：针对大疆精灵4与奋斗者VTOLmini两类典型无人机目标，系统计算结果与实弹实验数据平均相对误差为7.36%，最大相对误差为13%，显著提升了转管机枪武器系统的命中概率模型精度，可有效支撑反无人机武器系统作战效能评估。

Abstract

In response to the growing threat posed by“low-altitude

slow-speed

small-size”(LSS) drones and drone swarms

Gatling guns have emerged as a key terminal-defense weapon system due to their high rate of fireand sustained firepower. However

conventional hit probability models neglect the dynamic influence of centrifugal and Coriolis inertial forces--induced by rapid barrel rotation at high firing rates—on projectile muzzle velocity

resulting in significant prediction errors that compromise precision interception capability. A systematic analysis of critical factors affecting hit probability is conducted

with centrifugal and Coriolis effects serving as the foundation for decomposing the axial and radial components of muzzle velocity. A corrected muzzle velocity formulation is derived by incorporating the tangential velocity of the rotating barrels and integrated into an external ballistic model to establish an enhanced hit probability model. Furthermore

a simulation system based on the Qt framework is developed

enabling parameter configuration

3D trajectory visualization

and multi-scenario hit probability computation. Simulation and live-fire experimental validation demonstrates that

for two representativeUAV targets (DJI Phantom 4 and Fendouzhe VTOL Mini)

the average relative error between the system's calculated results and the live-fire measured data is 7.36%

with a maximum relative error of 13%. This work thereby significantly improves the fidelity of hit probability modeling for Gatling gun-based anti-UAV weapon systems

and provides robust technical support for the operational effectiveness evaluation of such systems.

关键词

Keywords

references

NALLAMALLI R , SINGH K , KUMAR I D .Technological Perspectives of Countering UAV Swarms[J].Defence Science Journal, 2023, 73(4): 9.

张进财, 陈智雄. 现代防空系统模式研究[J]. 现代雷达, 2022, 44(03):99-100.

ZHANG J C,CHEN Z X. Study on the mode of modern air defense systems[J]. Modern Radar, 2022, 44(03),99-100.（in Chinese）

张鹏军, 刘中跃, 王自勇, 等. 高射频转管机枪末端主动防御技术研究[J]. 火力与指挥控制, 2023, 48(09): 152-159+166.

ZHANG P J, LIU Z Y, WANG Z Y, et al. Research on terminal active defense technology of high-rate-of-fire rotary-barrel machine guns[J]. Fire Control & Command Control,2023,48(09), 152-159+166.（in Chinese）

马佳佳 . 弹道仿真在高射速高炮武器系统效能分析中的应用研究[D]. 南京理工大学, 2015.

MA J J. Research on the application of ballistic simulation in effectiveness analysis of high-fire-rate anti-aircraft gun weapon systems.[D]. Nanjing University of Science and Technology.2015.（in Chinese）

胡小利, 王炳, 基于高射频舰炮武器系统的射击效力分析[J]. 指挥控制与仿真, 2015, 37(2): 62-66,73.

HU X L, WANG B. Analysis of fire effectiveness based on high-rate-of-fire naval gun weapon systems[J]. Command Control & Simulation,2015, 37(2), 62-66, 73.（in Chinese）

齐晓林, 左金雨, 孟新强, 等. 某型转管航炮对空中目标射击命中概率分析[J]. 火力与指挥控制, 2015, 40(1): 80-83.

QI X L, ZUO J Y, MENG X Q, et al. Analysis of firing hit probability of a certain type of rotary-barrel aircraft gun against air targets[J]. Fire Control & Command Control,2015, 40(1), 80-83.（in Chinese）

BARANOWSKI L, SZYMONIK J, MAJEWSKI P.Dynamic calculation of the fire zone for anti-aircraft artillery[J].Journal of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics, 2024, 62(4):787-798.

OBRADOVIĆ Z B, NIKOLIĆ B B, POPOVIĆ G P, et al. Application of the modeling method to the calculation of the probability of hitting a stationary target during the fire action of a tank squad in defense[J]. Vojnotehnicki glasnik/Military Technical Courier, 2023, 71(3): 722-739.

徐国亮, 王勇. 舰炮反导火控原理[M]. 北京: 北京理工大学出版社, 2018.

XU G L, WANG Y. Principles of Naval Gun Anti-Missile Fire Control[M]. Beijing: Beijing Institute of Technology Press.2018.（in Chinese）

PENG Z, LIN Y, FANG S, et al. Design of simulation software for multi-agent cooperative control algorithm based on QT and OSG[C]//Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Advanced Robotics and Mechatronics (ICARM). Guilin, China: IEEE, 2022: 193-199.

NGUYEN K D, HA C. Development of hardware-in-the-loop simulation based on gazebo and pixhawk for unmanned aerial vehicles[J]. International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences, 2018, 19(1): 238-249.

LI H S , ZHANG X Q .Flight parameter calculation method of multi-projectiles using temporal and spatial information constraint[J].Defence Technology(防务技术), 2023, 19(1):63-75.

李志猛, 徐培德, 冉承新等. 武器系统效能评估理论及应用[M]. 北京: 国防工业出版社, 2013.

LI Z M, XU P D, RAN C X, et al. Theory and applications of weapon system effectiveness evaluation[M]. Beijing: National Defense Industry Press.2013.（in Chinese）

ABROUGUI H , NEJIM S , DALLAGI H .Modeling and Control of a Remote Control Weapon Station[C]//Proceedings of the 8th IEEE International Conference on Advanced Systems and Emergent Technologies (IC_ASET). Hammamet, Tunisia: IEEE, 2024: 1-6.

张保山, 陈群斋, 李敏．小口径舰炮转管修正弹道数学模型研究[J]. 舰船科学技术, 2008, 30(3): 152-154．

ZHANG B S, CHEN Q Z, LI M. Research on the mathematical model of corrected trajectory for small-caliber naval gun with rotary barrel[J]. Ship Science and Technology, 2008, 30(3), 152-154.（in Chinese）

VÁZQUEZ-DORRÍO B, PAREDES A, QUEIRUGA-DIOS M A. Hands-on visualization of the effect of fictitious forces with a laser pointer[J]. European Journal of Physics, 2023, 45(1): 015001.

张开耀, 王永娟, 徐诚, 等.转管机枪外弹道特性分析与射表计算软件研究[J]. 机械制造与自动化, 2013, 42(06): 128-131

ZHANG K Y, WANG Y J, XU C, et al. Research on analysis of external ballistic characteristics and firing table calculation software for rotary-barrel machine guns[J]. Machinery Manufacturing and Automation, 2013, 42(06), 128-131.（in Chinese）

KONOSEVICH B , KONOSEVICH Y .Error estimate of the modified point-mass trajectory model of an artillery shell[J].Nonlinear Dynamics, 2017, 90(4):1-19.

CANDELARIO G, CORDERO A, TORREGROSA J R, et al. Generalized conformable fractional Newton-type method for solving nonlinear systems[J]. Numerical Algorithms, 2023, 93(3): 1171-1208.

MUKADDES,ÖKTEN,TURACI,et al.Derivation of three-derivative Runge-Kutta methods[J].Numerical Algorithms, 2017, 74(1):247-265.

潘承泮. 武器系统射击效力[M]. 北京: 兵器工业出版社, 1994．

PAN C P. Firing efficiency of weapon system[M]. Beijing: Publishing House of Ordnance Industry, 1994. (in Chinese)

罗兴柏, 刘国庆. 陆军武器系统作战效能分析[M]. 北京: 国防工业出版社, 2007.

LUO X B, LIU G Q. Efficiency analysis of land force weapon system[M]. Beijing: National Defense Industry Press,2007. (in Chinese)

CHEN H , AHMADIANFAR I , HEIDARI A A ,et al.RUN beyond the metaphor: An efficient optimization algorithm based on Runge Kutta method[J].Expert Systems with Application, 2021(181-Nov.).

王兆胜. 火炮射击精度分析的模型与应用[M]. 北京: 国防工业出版社, 2013.

WANG Z S. Models and applications of gun firing accuracy analysis[M]. Beijing: National Defense Industry Press.2013.（in Chinese）

HUNG Y C. A review of Monte Carlo and quasi‐Monte Carlo sampling techniques[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Computational Statistics, 2024, 16(1): e1637.

Views

下载量

CNKI被引量

Alert me when the article has been cited

提交

Tools

Publicity Resources

Bayesian Estimation of Surface-to-Air Missile Hit Probability Based on Normal-inverse Wishart Distribution

Estimation of Ammunition Hit Probability in Multiple-Batch Tests Using Multinomial Distribution

Related Author

Haobang LIU

Xianming SHI

Mei ZHAO

Jianjun ZHANG

Bing HAO

Yongchao JIANG

Related Institution

Department of Equipment Command and Management, Shijiazhuang Campus of Army Engineering University

Unit 32140 of PLA

Postal code：100089
Tel：010-68963060/68962718 Fax：010-68963025 Email：bgxb@cos.org.cn
Technical support is provided by Beijing Founder electronics co., LTD 京ICP备05059581号-4 京公网安备11010802024360号
It is recommended to read the content of this site in Chrome&IE9+. Please switch to extreme mode in browser 360.
Cookies We use cookies to help provide and enhance our service and tailor content. By continuing, you agree to the use of cookies.
Total Visits：95721 Visits Today：674

⁰