Time-varying Reliability Analysis of Magazine Positioning Accuracy with Consideration of Roller Wear

LI Ang; CHEN Guangsong; LI Hanning; HUANG Peng; WANG Chao

doi:10.12382/bgxb.2025.0555

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Time-varying Reliability Analysis of Magazine Positioning Accuracy with Consideration of Roller Wear

更新时间：2026-05-06

- Time-varying Reliability Analysis of Magazine Positioning Accuracy with Consideration of Roller Wear
- Acta Armamentarii Vol. 47, Issue 4, Pages: 250555(2026)
- 作者机构：
  
  南京理工大学机械工程学院，江苏南京 210094
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.12382/bgxb.2025.0555
  CLC： TJ301
- Received：26 June 2025，
  
  Online First：27 January 2026，
  
  Published：2026-04
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
LI Ang, CHEN Guangsong, LI Hanning, et al. Time-varying Reliability Analysis of Magazine Positioning Accuracy with Consideration of Roller Wear[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2026, 47(4): 250555.
DOI：

LI Ang, CHEN Guangsong, LI Hanning, et al. Time-varying Reliability Analysis of Magazine Positioning Accuracy with Consideration of Roller Wear[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2026, 47(4): 250555. DOI： 10.12382/bgxb.2025.0555.

摘要

在火炮自动装填系统中，弹仓是完成弹丸转运的重要组成部分。由于弹仓滚子负载大、速度快，在实际运行时易发生磨损，影响弹仓内弹丸的到位精度，对弹交接过程影响较大。为评估火炮自动装填系统弹仓在滚子磨损工况下的到位精度可靠性，开展时变运动可靠性分析。通过磨损测量仪器获取滚子材料的磨损特性，建立弹仓机构动力学模型，并以实验数据验证其准确性；在此基础上，构建基于前馈神经网络的弹仓动态响应代理模型；结合1阶线性估计与高维高斯分布，推导首次穿越率的时变运动可靠性计算方法，并采用数值积分求解到位精度的失效概率。新方法所得的失效概率与蒙特卡洛模拟结果之间的拟合优度指标超过0.99，而所需样本量仅为后者的0.74%。分析结果表明，弹仓累计运行至3750s时，失效概率升至0.15，需要及时检修并更换磨损滚子以保障系统可靠性。

Abstract

In the automatic loading system of artillery

the magazine is a critical component responsible for projectile transfer. The rollers in the magazine are prone to wear during actual operation due to their high loads and high operating speeds

which degrades the positioning accuracy of projectiles within the magazine and significantly affects the process of projectile transfer. A time-varying motion reliability analysis is conducted to evaluate the time-varying reliability of positioning accuracy of magazine under roller wear conditions. The wear characteristics of roller material are first obtained using a wear measurement instrument

and a dynamic model of the magazine mechanism is established and validated against experimental data. Subsequently

a dynamic response surrogate model of the magazine is constructed based on a feedforward neural network. A method for calculating the time-varying firstcrossing failure probability is derived by integrating first-order linear estimation with a high-dimensional Gaussian distribution

and the failure probability associated with positioning accuracy is calculated by numerical integration. The goodness-of-fit between the failure probabilities obtained by the proposed method and those from Monte Carlo simulation exceeds 0.99

while the required sample size is only 0.74% of that needed for Monte Carlo simulation. Analysis shows that

when the magazine has been in operation for a total 3750 seconds

the failure probability rises to 0.15

necessitating timely maintenance and replacement of the worn rollers to ensure system reliability.

关键词

Keywords

references

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