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1. 陆军工程大学石家庄校区 装备指挥与管理系, 河北 石家庄 050003
2. 32140部队, 河北 石家庄 050061
Received:19 June 2022,
Published Online:06 February 2024,
Published:30 January 2024
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Haobang LIU, Xianming SHI, Mei ZHAO, et al. Bayesian Estimation of Surface-to-Air Missile Hit Probability Based on Normal-inverse Wishart Distribution[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2024, 45(1): 339-348.
Haobang LIU, Xianming SHI, Mei ZHAO, et al. Bayesian Estimation of Surface-to-Air Missile Hit Probability Based on Normal-inverse Wishart Distribution[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2024, 45(1): 339-348. DOI: 10.12382/bgxb.2022.0547.
针对现有导弹命中概率贝叶斯估计中主要采用二维正态射弹散布但未考虑
X
轴、
Y
轴两向相关导致估计精度不高的问题
采用正态-逆威沙特分布作为射弹散布参数先验分布
对地空导弹命中概率估计方法展开研究。在描述地空导弹脱靶量定义的基础上
以两向相关特点确定相关系数。针对地空导弹外场试验成本高、数据少
经典统计学方法估计命中概率困难问题
采用贝叶斯方法融合先验信息进行研究。
基于正态-逆威沙特分布
利用先验信息对先验分布超参数进行求解
并利用贝叶斯公式融合外场实测试验数据
求出射弹散布参数后验分布
最终完成地空导弹命中概率估计。试验结果表明
该方法相比现有正态-逆伽马分布方法
能够考虑地空导弹射弹散布两向相关的实际情况
并充分利用命中概率信息
有利于提升估计准确性
为地空导弹命中概率估计提供理论方法。
The two-dimensional normal projectile dispersion is mainly used in the existing Bayesian estimation of missile hit probability
but the accuracy of estimation is not high enough due to the failure of considering the two-direction correlation of
X
and
Y
axes. The normal-inverse Wishart distribution is used as the prior distribution of projectile dispersion parameters
and the hit probability estimation method of surface-to-air missile is studied.Firstly
on the basis of describing the definition of miss distance of surface-to-air missile
the correlation coefficient
ρ
is determined by two related characteristics.Secondly
in view of the problems of high cost
little dataof the surface-to-air missile field test
and the difficulty of estimating hit probability by classical statistical methods
the Bayesian method is used to integrate the prior informationfor research. Then
based on the normal-inverse Wishart distribution
the prior information is used to solve the hyperparameters of the prior distribution
and the posterior distribution of projectile dispersion parameters are obtained by integrating the field test data with the Bayesian formula
and finally the hit probability of surface-to-air missile is estimated. The results show that
compared with the existing normal-inverse gamma distribution method
the proposed method take into account the actual situation of the projectile dispersion two-direction correlation of surface-to-air missile
and makes full use of the hit probability information
which is conducive to improving the accuracy of estimation
and provide a theoretical method for the estimation of surface-to-air missile hit probability.
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