Prediction Model for Ignition Probability Function of Ullage in Aircraft Fuel Tank

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2022.02.016

Abstract

Abstract: The ballistic experiment of shooting a projectile at a simulated fuel tank is made to study the ignition probability function of ullage in aircraft fuel tank, and the conditions of igniting to fuel tank by projectile at different speeds are obtained. The impact damage criterion of fuel tank (BC criterion) is put forward. Based on the experimental research, an ignition probability function prediction model of the ullage in aircraft fuel tank is obtained through Logistic regression analysis. The research results show that the error between the predicted value of the ignition probability function based on BC criterion with the predicted value of the empirical formula and the frequency at experimental point is small, and the proposed prediction model can be used to predict the ignition probability of fuel tank under the given conditions with good accuracy. The research methods and related conclusions can provide a reference for the research on the damage criterion of aircraft fuel tank and the aircraft vulnerability assessment.

Key words: aircraftdesign, fueltank, ignitionprobabilityfunction, Logisticregression, damagecriterion

CLC Number:

V221⁺.1

LUO Liang， PEI Yang， HOU Peng， ZHANG Mengtao， LI Mingsuo. Prediction Model for Ignition Probability Function of Ullage in Aircraft Fuel Tank[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2022, 43(2): 383-390.

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