以毁歼数为判据的高炮毁歼概率试验方法研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2020.04.002

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为进行高炮毁歼概率的直接检测，从毁歼概率定义出发，分析各类试验方法，指出应优先选择以毁歼数为判据的直接试验方法。给出毁歼事件的可检测定义，推导计算模型，进行以毁歼数为判据的试验设计；采用递推计算代替查表计算，解决表格精度制约计算精度的问题。通过具体算例，证明不能简单采用毁歼概率的最大似然估计作为评判标准；分析指标要求、试验风险和最小毁歼频率的关系，完成具体型号试验次数与预期最小毁歼数的计算。结果表明，直接试验方法具有可行性，能够支撑试验设计的优化。

关键词: 高炮, 毁歼概率, 试验设计, 直接试验, 试验风险

Abstract: The anti-aircraft artillery kill probability is mainly tested by indirect test method, and the direct test method with the highest credibility is studied. For the direct test, the definition of kill probability is determined, various test methods are analyzed, the direct test method with the quantity of killed targets as the criterion should be selected, and a detectable definition of the kill event is presented. The test design for judging kill probability by quantity of killed targets is made. Instead of finding the results in a table, the recursive calculation model is derived to achieve higher calculation accuracy. It is proved that the maximum likelihood estimation of kill probability cannot be simply used as the criterion. The relationship among indicator, test risk and the minimum kill frequency is analyzed. The total number of tests and the minimum quantity of targets to be destroyed are calculated for a weapon system. The results show that the direct test method is feasible and can support the optimization of test design. Key

Key words: anti-aircraftartillery, killprobability, testdesign, directtest, testrisk

中图分类号:

TJ35

谢杰涛，吴娟，王树恩，范兆军，韩百刚. 以毁歼数为判据的高炮毁歼概率试验方法研究[J]. 兵工学报, 2020, 41(4): 634-640.

XIE Jietao， WU Juan， WANG Shu'en， FAN Zhaojun， HAN Baigang. Test Method for Judging Kill Probability of Anti-aircraft Artillery by Quantity of Killed Targets[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2020, 41(4): 634-640.

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第41卷第4期2020 年4月
兵工学报ACTA ARMAMENTARII
Vol.41No.4Apr.2020

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