基于SEM-FCEM的舰船抗打击能力评估

doi:10.12382/bgxb.2025.0522

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为提升舰船任务性能，聚焦任务时的舰船抗打击能力评估，提出基于结构方程模型和模糊综合评价法的舰船抗打击能力评估模型，以综合评估舰船抗打击能力。从建立舰船抗打击能力指标体系出发，构建舰船抗打击能力的结构方程模型，对模拟任务数据进行处理分析，并利用统计分析软件实现结构方程模型的处理，构建得到舰船抗打击能力各指标的路径系数，以此得到指标权重。为计算得到舰船抗打击能力评估值，将结构方程模型与模糊综合评价法结合起来，利用模糊综合评价的计算原理对作战模拟数据及结构方程模型得到的数据进行计算，最终实现舰船抗打击能力的任务评估，并可评估分析舰船抗打击能力各子能力的水平，以查找薄弱点，针对性提出改进意见。

关键词: 抗打击能力, 结构方程模型, 模糊综合评价法, 评估体系

Abstract:

To enhance the mission performance of ships，this paper focuses on the evaluation of ship anti-strike capability during missions，and proposes a ship anti-strike capability evaluation model based on the structural equation modeling-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method （SEM-FCEM） to comprehensively assess the anti-strike capability of ship.Starting from establishing an index system for the anti-strike capability of ship，a structural equation model （SEM） for the anti-strike capability of ship is constructed.Simulated mission data is processed and analyzed，and the structural equation model is implemented via statistical analysis software to derive the path coefficients of each index for the anti-strike capability of ship，thereby obtaining index weights.To calculate the evaluation value of the anti-strike capability of ship，the structural equation model is combined with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.The calculation principles of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation are used to process the combat simulation data and the data obtained from the structural equation model，ultimately achieving mission-oriented evaluation of the anti-strike capability of ship.Additionally，this approach can assess and analyze the level of each sub-capability of ship strike resistance to identify the weaknesses and propose the targeted improvement suggestions.

Key words: anti-strike capability, structural equation model, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, evaluation system

郭晶晶, 张国洲, 陈于涛, 夏子潮, 赵博. 基于SEM-FCEM的舰船抗打击能力评估[J]. 兵工学报, 2025, 46(S1): 250522-.

GUO Jingjing, ZHANG Gouzhou, CHEN Yutao, XIA Zichao, ZHAO Bo. Evaluation of Ship Anti-Strike Capability Based on SEM-FCEM[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2025, 46(S1): 250522-.

图/表 16

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类别	拟合指标	检验标准
KMO<0.5	χ²	越趋于0拟合越好
	GFI	>0.9，越趋于1拟合越好
	RMSEA	<0.1，越趋于0拟合越好
增值拟合指标	AGFI	>0.9，越趋于1拟合越好
增值拟合指标	NFI	>0.9，越趋于1拟合越好
精度拟合指标	CFI	>0.9，越趋于1拟合越好
	IFI	>0.9，越趋于1拟合越好
	AIC	越趋于0拟合越好

类别	拟合指标	检验标准
KMO<0.5	χ²	越趋于0拟合越好
	GFI	>0.9，越趋于1拟合越好
	RMSEA	<0.1，越趋于0拟合越好
增值拟合指标	AGFI	>0.9，越趋于1拟合越好
增值拟合指标	NFI	>0.9，越趋于1拟合越好
精度拟合指标	CFI	>0.9，越趋于1拟合越好
	IFI	>0.9，越趋于1拟合越好
	AIC	越趋于0拟合越好

外生潜变量	内生潜变量	显变量
舰船抗打击能力ξ₁	防护能力η₁	预警拦截成功率y₁ 结构防护破损率y₂ 电子信息干扰成功率y₃
	设备抗损能力η₂	设备受攻击率y₄ 设备备用成功率y₅ 设备受损率y₆
	损害管制能力η₃	进水堵漏成功率y₇ 灭火成功率y₈ 监测防护成功率y₉ 设备维修成功率y₁₀
	支援保障能力η₄	基地协调保障成功率y₁₁ 受损接收成功率y₁₂
	舰员任务能力η₅	指挥判断准确率y₁₃
	舰员任务能力η₅	舰员操作准确率y₁₄

外生潜变量	内生潜变量	显变量
舰船抗打击能力ξ₁	防护能力η₁	预警拦截成功率y₁ 结构防护破损率y₂ 电子信息干扰成功率y₃
	设备抗损能力η₂	设备受攻击率y₄ 设备备用成功率y₅ 设备受损率y₆
	损害管制能力η₃	进水堵漏成功率y₇ 灭火成功率y₈ 监测防护成功率y₉ 设备维修成功率y₁₀
	支援保障能力η₄	基地协调保障成功率y₁₁ 受损接收成功率y₁₂
	舰员任务能力η₅	指挥判断准确率y₁₃
	舰员任务能力η₅	舰员操作准确率y₁₄

指标	次数	最大值	最小值	均值	标准差
y₁	244	8	4	6.10	1.412
y₂	244	8	4	6.10	1.019
y₃	244	8	4	6.03	1.017
y₄	244	8	4	5.94	1.049
y₅	244	8	4	5.96	0.860
y₆	244	8	4	5.99	0.922
y₇	244	8	4	5.91	1.043
y₈	244	8	4	5.90	0.880
y₉	244	8	4	5.91	0.950
y₁₀	244	8	4	5.92	0.920
y₁₁	244	8	4	5.98	0.899
y₁₂	244	8	4	5.93	0.885
y₁₃	244	8	4	5.95	1.144
y₁₄	244	8	4	5.86	0.937