基于前景理论的空战目标威胁评估

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2020.06.021

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 空战目标威胁评估是目标分配与火力分配的基础。针对目标威胁评估研究存在确定指标权重时未考虑指标间的相关性，采用单一灰色关联分析（GRA）方法和逼近理想点（TOPSIS）方法不能准确反映目标威胁大小，以及未考虑飞行员决策时面临损失和收益时的不同态度等问题，在综合GRA和TOPSIS的基础上，提出一种基于前景GRA-TOPSIS的空战目标威胁评估模型。提出灰色关联深度的概念，结合极大熵确定指标权重；利用指标之间的灰色关联度变权方法对指标权重进行修正，避免指标之间的相关性影响；利用GRA方法分析目标指标序列的曲线形状相似性，结合TOPSIS方法分析位置的相似性，基于前景理论，将飞行员面临收益以损失的态度融合到目标威胁评估中，得到能够体现飞行员特质的目标威胁评估结果。通过仿真验证了所提方法的有效性以及合理性。

关键词: 空战目标威胁评估, 灰色关联度, 指标相关性, 灰色关联分析方法, 逼近理想点方法, 极大熵, 灰色关联深度, 前景理论

Abstract: Air combat target threat assessment is the basis of target allocation and firepower allocation. When the weight of target threat assessment indexes is determined, the correlation between the assessment indexes is not considered. And the single grey relation analysis (GRA) method and the single technique for order preferenceby similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) cannot accurately reflect the threat degree of target, in which the different attitudes of a pilot towards the loss and gain in the decision-making are not considered. Based on GRA and TOPSIS methods, a prospect theory and GRA-TOPSIS target threat assessment model is proposed. A concept of grey correlation depth is presented, and the weight of assessment index is determined by combining maximum entropy. The variable weight gray correlation threshold method is used to adjust the weights of assessment indexes to avoid the index-relevance effect. Finally, GRA method is used to analyze the curve shape similarity of index series, and TOPSIS method is used to analyze the position similarity. Baesd on the prospect theory, and the attitudes of pilots towards gains and losses, the threat assessment results can reflect the traits of pilots. Simulated results show the effectiveness and rationality of the proposed methods. Key

Key words: aircombattargetthreatassessment, greyrelationaldegree, indexcorrelation, greyrelationanalysis, techniquefororderpreferencebysimilaritytoidealsolution, maximumentropy, greyrelationaldepth, prospecttheory

中图分类号:

E844

奚之飞，徐安，寇英信，李战武，杨爱武. 基于前景理论的空战目标威胁评估[J]. 兵工学报, 2020, 41(6): 1236-1248.

XI Zhifei, XU An, KOU Yingxin, LI Zhanwu, YANG Aiwu. Air Combat Target Threat Assessment Based on Prospect Theory[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2020, 41(6): 1236-1248.

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