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兵工学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (8): 1524-1529.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-1093.2016.08.026

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

非恒定环境下基于载荷谱的导弹部件寿命预测

王浩伟1, 滕克难2, 奚文骏1   

  1. (1.海军航空工程学院 兵器科学与技术系, 山东 烟台 264001; 2.海军航空工程学院 训练部, 山东 烟台 264001)
  • 收稿日期:2015-12-05 修回日期:2015-12-05 上线日期:2016-09-30
  • 通讯作者: 王浩伟 E-mail:13705355730@139.com
  • 作者简介:王浩伟(1981—)男讲师,博士后
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(51605487)

Load Spectra-based Lifetime Prediction for Missile Components under Varying Environment

WANG Hao-wei1, TENG Ke-nan2, XI Wen-jun1   

  1. (1.Department of Ordnance Science and Technology, Naval Aeronautical and Astronautical University, Yantai 264001,Shandong, China;2.Department of Training, Naval Aeronautical and Astronautical University, Yantai 264001, Shandong, China)
  • Received:2015-12-05 Revised:2015-12-05 Online:2016-09-30
  • Contact: WANG Hao-wei E-mail:13705355730@139.com

摘要: 为了解决某导弹部件在非恒定贮存环境下的寿命预测问题,提出了一种基于环境载荷谱的预测方法。分别利用Normal、Gamma分布对温度、湿度载荷谱建模;采用三参数Weibull分布拟合产品的失效时间,进而通过加速因子不变原则推导与环境相关的模型参数,在此基础上利用简化的广义Eyring模型建立时变环境与寿命模型之间的联系。案例应用验证了所提方法的有效性,结果表明此方法比传统的基于环境平均值的预测方法降低了预测误差。

关键词: 兵器科学与技术, 寿命预测, 非恒定环境, 载荷谱, 三参数Weibull分布, 加速因子不变原则

Abstract: A forecasting method based on the environmental load spectra is proposed for predicting the lifetime of missile components under time-varying storage environment. Normal and Gamma distributions are used to model the load spectra for collected temperature and humidity data, respectively. A three-parameter Weibull distribution is utilized to fit the time of failure, then the parameters, which are dependent on environment, are determined using acceleration factor constant principle. Furthermore, a simplified generalized Eyring model is used to establish the relationship between the time-varying environment and the reliability model. A case study is provided to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that the proposed method can be used to reduce the prediction error compared with the traditional prediction method that takes the average environment as varying environment.

Key words: ordnance science and technology, lifetime prediction, varying environment, load spectrum, three-parameter Weibull distribution, acceleration factor constant principle

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