无人平台综合电力系统连锁故障风险评估模型及预防策略

doi:10.12382/bgxb.2025.0514

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

综合电力系统的发电机组、输电线路和配电网络都集成在一个相对狭小的空间里，各个设备之间耦合程度高，使得连锁故障的传播速度更快。针对运行环境相对恶劣、工况转换较为频繁的综合电力系统连锁故障分析，基于模式搜索理论和风险评估理论，建立了无人平台综合电力系统连锁故障风险评估模型，并对典型中压直流综合电力系统进行风险评估，对比分析了运行工况和可靠性参数对系统连锁故障风险的影响，验证了风险评估模型的合理性。以风险评估结果为依据，针对系统薄弱环节，从优化设备结构角度制定了相应的预防策略，电磁暂态时域仿真和实验平台物理实验验证了所提连锁故障预防策略的有效性。

关键词: 无人平台, 综合电力系统, 连锁故障, 风险评估, 智能化管理, 预防策略

Abstract:

In a typical integrated power system （IPS），the generator sets，transmission lines and distribution network are integrated in a relatively confined space，which leads to the tight coupling between the devices and accelerates the propagation of cascading failures.A risk assessment model of cascading failures in unmanned platform IPS is established based on pattern search theory and risk assessment theory，which is used to analyze the cascading failure of IPS under severe operating environment and frequent mode switching.Based on the model，a risk assessment is performed on a typical MVDC IPS，and the influences of different operation conditions and reliability parameters on the cascading failure risk are also analyzed.The proposed risk assessment model is validated through risk assessment and anlysis.Based on the risk assessment results，the weak links of the system are identified，and the corresponding prevention strategies are proposed by optimizing the equipment structure.The proposed cascading failure prevention strategies are verified through both simulation and experiment.

Key words: unmanned platform, integrated power system, cascading failure, risk assessment, intelligent management, prevention strategy

叶志浩, 张雪妍, 吴京, 骆希. 无人平台综合电力系统连锁故障风险评估模型及预防策略[J]. 兵工学报, 2025, 46(S1): 250514-.

YE Zhihao, ZHANG Xueyan, WU Jing, LUO Xi. Risk Assessment Model and Prevention Strategy of Cascading Failure in Unmanned Platform Integrated Power System[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2025, 46(S1): 250514-.

图/表 24

图1 IPS结构组成

Fig.1 Composition of integrated oower system

图2 线路停运概率曲线

Fig.2 Line outage probability curve

图3 初始故障支路集选取流程

Fig.3 Flow chart of selecting initial fault set

图4 舰船IPS连锁故障路径预测与风险评估模型流程

Fig.4 Flow chart of IPS cascading failure path prediction and risk assessment

图5 典型IPS拓扑结构

Fig.5 Typical topological structure of IPS

图6 典型IPS等效拓扑结构

Fig.6 Equivalent topological structure of IPS

图7 初始故障支路风险分析结果

Fig.7 Risk analysis results of initial fault line

表1 部分初始故障支路风险值

Table 1 Risk values of initial fault lines

故障线路编号	初始故障风险值/10^-6	故障线路编号	初始故障风险值/10^-6
L41	318.61	L28	37.013
L43	318.61	L34	36.758
L38	37.993	L27	23.428
L30	44.436	L14	23.428
L35	37.617	L12	3.6235

图8 考虑船网自动控制功能时线路潮流变化量及停运概率

Fig.8 Current flow variation and outage probability of system line considering IPS automatic control

图9 连锁故障树

Fig.9 Cascading fault paths

表2 初始故障支路为L41的风险评估结果

Table 2 Risk assessment results （initial fault line is L41）

序号	连锁故障路径	发生概率/10^-4	风险值/10^-6	频率/Hz
1	L41-L35-L42-L30	1.1283	304.82	49.55
2	L41-L35-L34-L37	4.1067	277.81	49.64
3	L41-L35-L34-L39	1.6435	121.62	49.63
4	L41-L35-L36-L30	1.6236	110.42	49.46
5	L41-L35-L34-L28	0.3659	25.613	49.65
6	L41-L35-L39-L28	0.1108	6.6474	49.70
7	L41-L35-L39-L28	0.3886	2.3313	49.70
8	L41-L35-L34-L30	0.3078	2.2163	49.64
9	L41-L35-L34-L12	0.3119	2.1213	49.66
10	L41-L35-L36-L12	0.3760	2.1059	49.72

表3 初始故障支路为L20的风险评估结果

Table 3 Risk assessment results （initial fault line is L20）

序号	连锁故障路径	发生概率/10^-4	风险值/10^-6	频率/Hz
1	L20-L21-L26-L27	1.012	8.538	49.51
2	L20-L21-L26-L12	1.271	5.927	49.75
3	L20-L26-L14-L2	2.271	5.882	49.59
4	L20-L26-L14-L1	2.351	4.3963	49.59
5	L20-L21-L14-L15	2.147	3.8860	49.62
6	L20-L26-L14-L12	1.568	2.948	49.60
7	L20-L26-L12-L8	1.195	2.735	49.67
8	L20-L26-L34-L37	0.1948	1.3285	49.59
9	L20-L34-L37-L12	0.1568	0.9031	49.62
10	L20-L21-L26-L27	1.012	8.538	49.51

表4 初始故障支路为L41的风险评估结果

Table 4 Risk assessment results （initial fault line is L41）

序号	连锁故障路径	发生概率/10^-4	风险值/10^-6	频率/Hz
1	L41-L35-L42	10.464	11227	0
2	L41-L35-L31-L29-L30	3.243	3414.4	0
3	L41-L35-L31-L37-L29	4.672	305.5	49.73
4	L41-L35-L31-L28-L37	4.018	269.9	49.69

表5 初始故障支路为L20的风险评估结果

Table 5 Risk assessment results （initial fault line is L20）

序号	连锁故障路径	发生概率/10^-4	风险值/10^-6	频率/Hz
1	L20-L21-L39-L28	0.912	9.6482	49.31
2	L20-L21-L26-L27	1.271	9.0927	49.85
3	L20-L31-L32-L39	1.051	5.2371	49.63
4	L20-L26-L14-L1	2.447	4.4612	49.71

图10 线路可靠性对连锁故障风险值的影响

Fig.10 Influence of line reliability on cascading failures

图11 保护装置可靠性对连锁故障风险值的影响

Fig.11 Influence of protection device reliability on cascading failures

图12 逆变器接入直流母线故障

Fig.12 Schematic diagram of inverter connecting to DC bus with a fault

图13 采取预防策略前仿真结果

Fig.13 Simulated results before implementing the preventive strategy

图14 采取预防策略后仿真结果

Fig.14 Simulated results after implementing the preventive strartegy

图15 实验系统结构图

Fig.15 Structure diagram of the test system

图16 实验系统实物图

Fig.16 Photos of the test system

表6 主要设备参数

Table 6 Parameters of main devices

设备名称	主要参数
中压直流源	输入电压	0~1000V
中压直流源	控制频率	10kHz
DC/DC 变换器	额定输入电压	DC 1000V
	额定输出电压	DC 800V
	单向支路电感	1mH
	输出滤波电容	400uF
	控制频率	10kHz
DC/AC 逆变器	额定输入电压	DC 800V
DC/AC 逆变器	额定输出电压	AC 220V（相电压）
输出负载（功率因数0.8）	有功功率	0~2kW
输出负载（功率因数0.8）	无功功率	0~1.5kVar

图17 未采取预防策略实验结果

Fig.17 Experimental results before implementing the preventive strategy

图18 采取预防策略实验结果

Fig.18 Experimental results after implementing the preventibe strategy

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