基于预定毁伤概率的悬浮式深弹使用方法

doi:10.12382/bgxb.2022.0005

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用悬浮式深弹拦截来袭鱼雷时,要在鱼雷可能来袭的航路上布设多枚深弹组成拦截线,以提升对鱼雷的毁伤概率。传统布设方法基于对鱼雷探测误差和深弹毁伤半径,确定目标可能通过区间并均匀配置深弹,没有合理地基于深弹射击误差和预定毁伤概率,确定深弹布设数量和瞄准点。基于预定概率区域射击方法以毁伤概率为预定指标,同时考虑观测误差和射击误差的最优拦截模型;通过构建中间函数求取理论最优毁伤概率,再根据最优毁伤概率,将预定毁伤概率作为输入,迭代求解布设深弹数量。通过分析拦截策略确定深弹布设瞄准点。仿真结果表明:该方法可以基于预定毁伤概率快速得到最优射弹数和瞄准点,验证毁伤概率与预定毁伤概率的误差小于1%,实现了水下拦截线的精确布设。

关键词: 悬浮式深弹, 毁伤概率, 区域射击

Abstract:

When using hovering deep bombs to intercept incoming torpedoes, multiple deep bombs are deployed along the possible torpedo path to form an interceptor line, thus increasing the probability of damaging the torpedo. The traditional deployment method is based on the detection error of the torpedo and the radius of destruction of the deep shells. It determines the probable passage interval of the target and distributes the deep shells evenly. However, the traditional method does not take into account the firing error of the deep ammunition or allow for a reasonable number of deep ammunition deployments and aiming points based on a predetermined damage probability. To address this, an optimal interception model is constructed by taking the destruction probability as the predetermined index, considering both observation error and firing error. By constructing an intermediate function, the theoretical optimal damage probability is obtained, and the predetermined damage probability is used as input for iteratively solving the number of deep bombs to be deployed based on the optimal damage probability. Finally, the targeting point of deep bomb deployment is determined by analyzing the interception strategy. Simulation calculations show that this method can quickly obtain the optimal number of projectiles and aiming points based on the predetermined firing probability. The error between the verified damage probability and the predetermined damage probability of the scheme is less than 1%, achieving the accurate deployment of the underwater interception line.

Key words: hovering deep bombs, destruction probability, vessels, area shooting

吴玲, 王丕琨, 卢发兴. 基于预定毁伤概率的悬浮式深弹使用方法[J]. 兵工学报, 2023, 44(4): 1217-1224.

WU Ling, WANG Pikun, LU Faxing. Applications of Hovering Deep Bombs Based on Predetermined Probability[J]. Acta Armamentarii, 2023, 44(4): 1217-1224.

图/表 11

图1 区域射击拦截鱼雷示意图

Fig.1 Diagram of torpedo-intercepting shooting area

图2 最大提前角射击示意图

Fig.2 Firing at the maximum advance angle

图3 最小提前角射击示意图

Fig.3 Firing of the minimum advance angle

图4 确定航路张角示意图

Fig.4 Range of possible routes

图5 紧急条件射击态势图

Fig.5 Firing under emergency conditions

图6 紧急条件区域拦截示意图

Fig.6 Diagram of area interception under emergency conditions

图7 正常条件区域拦截示意图

Fig.7 Diagram of area interception under normal conditions

图8 深弹区域拦截示意图

Fig.8 Diagram of area interception of a deep bomb

表1 两方法计算结果对比

Table 1 Comparison of the calculation results of the two algorithms

方法	计算初值	最终结果	迭代次数	验证毁伤概率	初值对应毁伤概率
本文方法	18	18	1	0.6030	0.6030
传统方法	27			0.6030	0.7233

表2 不同射击误差条件计算结果比较

Table 2 Comparison of the calculation results under different firing error conditions

E_β/m	E_d/m	本文方法确定初值 (对应毁伤概率)	传统方法确定初值 (对应毁伤概率)	精确计算结果 (对应毁伤概率)	本文方法初值计算耗时/s
15	10	13(0.5240)	25(0.8127)	15(0.5939)	0.00501
30	20	18(0.6030)	25(0.7233)	18(0.6030)	0.00522
45	30	20(0.6064)	25(0.6869)	20(0.6064)	0.00532

表3 不同声呐精度下计算结果比较

Table 3 Comparison of calculation results with different sonar accuracies

σ/rad	K_ds/m	拦截线长度/ m	传统方法确定初值 (对应毁伤概率)	本文方法确定初值 (对应毁伤概率)	精确迭代计算结果 (对应毁伤概率)
0.005	0.005	1195	20(0.7147)	15(0.6164)	15(0.6164)
0.010	0.010	1287	22(0.7231)	16(0.6078)	16(0.6078)
0.020	0.020	1473	25(0.7223)	18(0.6030)	18(0.6030)

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